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In causal inference, the correct formulation of the scientific question of interest is a crucial step. Here we apply the estimand framework to a comparison of the outcomes of patient-level clinical trials and observational data to help…

Assessing the causal effect of time-varying exposures on recurrent event processes is challenging in the presence of a terminating event. Our objective is to estimate both the short-term and delayed marginal causal effects of exposures on…

The ICH E9 (R1) addendum on estimands, coupled with recent advancements in causal inference, has prompted a shift towards using model-free treatment effect estimands that are more closely aligned with the underlying scientific question.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-11 Stijn Vansteelandt , Kelly Van Lancker

Causal inference concerns not only the average effect of the treatment on the outcome but also the underlying mechanism through an intermediate variable of interest. Principal stratification characterizes such a mechanism by targeting…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Zhichao Jiang , Shu Yang , Peng Ding

A common concern in non-inferiority (NI) trials is that non adherence due, for example, to poor study conduct can make treatment arms artificially similar. Because intention to treat analyses can be anti-conservative in this situation, per…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-04 Katy E Morgan , Ian R White , Clémence Leyrat , Simon Stanworth , Brennan C Kahan

When interested in a time-to-event outcome, competing events that prevent the occurrence of the event of interest may be present. In the presence of competing events, various statistical estimands have been suggested for defining the causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-09 Elisavet Syriopoulou , Sarwar I Mozumder , Mark J Rutherford , Paul C Lambert

In clinical trials involving both mortality and morbidity, an active treatment can influence the observed risk of the first non-fatal event either directly, through its effect on the underlying non-fatal event process, or indirectly,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-19 Jiren Sun , Thomas D. Cook

Background: A common intercurrent event affecting many trials is when some participants do not begin their assigned treatment. Many trials use a modified intention-to-treat (mITT) approach, whereby participants who do not initiate treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-04 Brennan C Kahan , Ian R White , Mark Edwards , Michael O Harhay

In clinical trials, the observation of participant outcomes may frequently be hindered by death, leading to ambiguity in defining a scientifically meaningful final outcome for those who die. Principal stratification methods are valuable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-01 Jiaqi Tong , Chao Cheng , Guangyu Tong , Michael O. Harhay , Fan Li

Many interventions are both beneficial to initiate and harmful to stop. Traditionally, to determine whether to deploy that intervention in a time-limited way depends on if, on average, the increase in the benefits of starting it outweigh…

Principal stratification is a causal framework to analyze randomized experiments with a post-treatment variable between the treatment and endpoint variables. Because the principal strata defined by the potential outcomes of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-22 Zhichao Jiang , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng

The ICH E9 (R1) Estimands Guidance1 terminology does not completely address the conceptual needs of time-to-event estimands in the complex oncology context. We previously described how censoring and censoring mechanisms for time-to-event…

Applications · Statistics 2022-03-07 Jonathan M Siegel , Hans-Jochen Weber , Stefan Englert

Precision medicine leverages patient heterogeneity to estimate individualized treatment regimens, formalized, data-driven approaches designed to match patients with optimal treatments. In the presence of competing events, where multiple…

In clinical trials, principal stratification analysis is commonly employed to address the issue of truncation by death, where a subject dies before the outcome can be measured. However, in practice, many survivor outcomes may remain…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Wei Li , Yuan Liu , Shanshan Luo , Zhi Geng

Recurrent events, including cardiovascular events, are commonly observed in biomedical studies. Researchers must understand the effects of various treatments on recurrent events and investigate the underlying mediation mechanisms by which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Yan-Lin Chen , Yan-Hong Chen , Pei-Fang Su , Huang-Tz Ou , An-Shun Tai

The interpretation of randomised clinical trial results is often complicated by intercurrent events. For instance, rescue medication is sometimes given to patients in response to worsening of their disease, either in addition to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-12 Hege Michiels , Cristina Sotto , An Vandebosch , Stijn Vansteelandt

In longitudinal studies where units are embedded in space or a social network, interference may arise, meaning that a unit's outcome can depend on treatment histories of others. The presence of interference poses significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Ye Wang , Michael Jetsupphasuk

Applied researchers in biomedicine and related fields are often interested in estimating the causal effect of a treatment or intervention. Although randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for establishing causal effects,…

The aim of clinical effectiveness research using repositories of electronic health records is to identify what health interventions 'work best' in real-world settings. Since there are several reasons why the net benefit of intervention may…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-19 Jie Zhu , Blanca Gallego

When longitudinal outcomes are evaluated in mortal populations, their non-existence after death complicates the analysis and its causal interpretation. Where popular methods often merge longitudinal outcome and survival into one scale or…