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Estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data is relevant for many applications such as personalized medicine. Here, we focus on the widespread setting where the observational data come from multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Jonas Schweisthal , Dennis Frauen , Mihaela van der Schaar , Stefan Feuerriegel

Estimating treatment effects conditional on observed covariates can improve the ability to tailor treatments to particular individuals. Doing so effectively requires dealing with potential confounding, and also enough data to adequately…

Data from both a randomized trial and an observational study are sometimes simultaneously available for evaluating the effect of an intervention. The randomized data typically allows for reliable estimation of average treatment effects but…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-01 David Cheng , Tianxi Cai

To investigate intervention effects on rare events, meta-analysis techniques are commonly applied in order to assess the accumulated evidence. When it comes to adverse effects in clinical trials, these are often most adequately handled…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Christian Röver , Qiong Wu , Anja Loos , Tim Friede

Conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation is the de facto gold standard for targeting a treatment to a heterogeneous population. The method estimates treatment effects up to an error $\epsilon > 0$ in each of $M$ different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-12 Sílvia Casacuberta , Moritz Hardt

Comparative binary outcome data are of fundamental interest in statistics and are often pooled in meta-analyses. Here we examine the simplest case where for each study there are two patient groups and a binary event of interest, giving rise…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-12 Rose Baker , Dan Jackson

To test scientific theories and develop individualized treatment rules, researchers often wish to learn heterogeneous treatment effects that can be consistently found across diverse populations and contexts. We consider the problem of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-01 Yi Zhang , Melody Huang , Kosuke Imai

Constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for the average treatment effect (ATE) from patient records is crucial to assess the effectiveness and safety of drugs. However, patient records typically come from different hospitals, thus raising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Yuxin Wang , Maresa Schröder , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Konstantin Hess , Stefan Feuerriegel

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is frequently estimated to refute the homogeneous treatment effect assumption. Under this assumption, all units making up the population under study experience identical benefit from a given…

[See paper for full abstract] Meta-analysis is a crucial tool for answering scientific questions. It is usually conducted on a relatively small amount of ``trusted'' data -- ideally from randomized, controlled trials -- which allow causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-15 Shiva Kaul , Geoffrey J. Gordon

Case-mix heterogeneity across studies complicates meta-analyses. As a result of this, treatments that are equally effective on patient subgroups may appear to have different effectiveness on patient populations with different case mix. It…

Applications · Statistics 2021-08-25 Tat-Thang Vo , Raphael Porcher , Anna Chaimani , Stijn Vansteelandt

Randomized clinical trials are the gold standard when estimating the average treatment effect. However, they are usually not a random sample from the real-world population because of the inclusion/exclusion rules. Meanwhile, observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-11 Kuan Jiang , Wenjie Hu , Shu Yang , Xinxing Lai , Xiaohua Zhou

Subgroup-specific meta-analysis synthesizes treatment effects for patient subgroups across randomized trials. Methods include joint or separate modeling of subgroup effects and treatment-by-subgroup interactions, but inconsistencies arise…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-22 Renato Panaro , Christian Röver , Tim Friede

In evidence synthesis, multilevel modeling approaches (MMAs) are commonly employed to combine aggregate data (AD) and individual participant data (IPD). These approaches rely on an aggregate outcome model that is ideally obtained by…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-18 Tran Trong Khoi Le , Marie-Felicia Béclin , Sivem Afach , Tat-Thang Vo

Accurately predicting conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) is crucial in personalized medicine and digital platform analytics. Since the treatments of interest often cannot be directly randomized, observational data is leveraged to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Miruna Oprescu , Nathan Kallus

Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is an active area of research. Most of the existing methods, however, focus on estimating the conditional average treatment effects of a single, binary treatment given a set of pre-treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-30 Max Goplerud , Kosuke Imai , Nicole E. Pashley

In many practical situations, randomly assigning treatments to subjects is uncommon due to feasibility constraints. For example, economic aid programs and merit-based scholarships are often restricted to those meeting specific income or…

The paper proposes an estimator to make inference of heterogeneous treatment effects sorted by impact groups (GATES) for non-randomised experiments. The groups can be understood as a broader aggregation of the conditional average treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-03-30 Daniel Jacob

Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) estimation is one of the main challenges in causal inference with observational data. In addition to Machine Learning based-models, nonparametric estimators called meta-learners have been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-06 Naoufal Acharki , Ramiro Lugo , Antoine Bertoncello , Josselin Garnier

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is challenging, especially when treatment information is missing. Although this is a widespread problem in practice, CATE estimation with missing treatments has received little…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-19 Milan Kuzmanovic , Tobias Hatt , Stefan Feuerriegel