Related papers: Quantifying Social Inflation in Liability Insuranc…
Active statistical inference is a new method for inference with AI-assisted data collection. Given a budget on the number of labeled data points that can be collected and assuming access to an AI predictive model, the basic idea is to…
Models of cosmic inflation posit an early phase of accelerated expansion of the universe, driven by the dynamics of one or more scalar fields in curved spacetime. Though detailed assumptions about fields and couplings vary across models,…
Diffusion of information in networks is at the core of many problems in AI. Common examples include the spread of ideas and rumors as well as marketing campaigns. Typically, information diffuses at a non-linear rate, for example, if markets…
Consider the problem of estimating average treatment effects when a large number of covariates are used to adjust for possible confounding through outcome regression and propensity score models. The conventional approach of model building…
Stochastic simulation has been widely used to analyze the performance of complex stochastic systems and facilitate decision making in those systems. Stochastic simulation is driven by the input model, which is a collection of probability…
Weighted Updating generalizes Bayesian updating, allowing for biased beliefs by weighting the likelihood function and prior distribution with positive real exponents. I provide a rigorous foundation for the model by showing that…
Social media platforms have transformed the dynamics of collective opinion formation, enabling rapid, large-scale interactions while simultaneously exposing online discourse to polarization and manipulation. Traditional models of opinion…
Hybrid Inflation is a two-field model where inflation ends by a tachyonic instability, the duration of which is determined by stochastic effects and has important observational implications. Making use of the recursive approach to the…
Both inflation and unemployment inflict social losses. When a tradeoff exists between the two, what would be the best combination of inflation and unemployment? A well known approach in economics to address this question consists to write…
Strong empirical evidence from laboratory experiments, and more recently from population surveys, shows that individuals, when evaluating their situations, pay attention to whether they experience gains or losses, with losses weighing more…
Inflation is a major determinant for allocation decisions and its forecast is a fundamental aim of governments and central banks. However, forecasting inflation is not a trivial task, as its prediction relies on low frequency, highly…
Motivated by the empirical observation of power-law distributions in the credits (e.g., ``likes'') of viral posts in social media, we introduce a high-dimensional tail index regression model and propose methods for estimation and inference…
A new simple model of diffusion of innovations in a social network with upgrading costs is introduced. Agents are characterized by a single real variable, their technological level. According to local information agents decide whether to…
The Vanilla Power Law Inflation is plagued with two severe drawbacks, the one being the issue of graceful exit, and the other being its compatibility with the existing data. There's yet another daunting problem generic to any inflationary…
In this work we study four well-known inflationary scenarios that are reported by the most recent Planck observations: Natural inflation, Hilltop quartic inflation, Starobinsky inflationary model, and Large field power-law potentials…
Weather parametric insurance relies on weather indices rather than actual loss assessments, enhancing claims efficiency, reducing moral hazard, and improving fairness. In the context of increasing climate change risks, despite growing…
We revisit the inflection point inflation with an extended discussion to large field values and consider the reheating effects on the inflationary predictions. Parametrizing the reheating dynamics in terms of the reheating temperature and…
We develop a model to price inflation and interest rates derivatives using continuous-time dynamics that have some links with macroeconomic monetary DSGE models equipped with a Taylor rule: in particular, the reaction function of the…
In a stochastic volatility framework, we find a general pricing equation for the class of payoffs depending on the terminal value of a market asset and its final quadratic variation. This allows a pricing tool for European-style claims…
Nonminimal coupling of the inflaton field to the Ricci curvature of spacetime is generally unavoidable, and the paradigm of inflation should be generalized by including the corresponding term in the Lagrangian of the inflationary theory.…