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We introduce $\textit{Backward Conformal Prediction}$, a method that guarantees conformal coverage while providing flexible control over the size of prediction sets. Unlike standard conformal prediction, which fixes the coverage level and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-13 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) are criticized for the excessively lengthy Chain-of-Thought (CoT) to derive the final answer, suffering from high first-token and overall latency. Typically, the CoT of LRMs mixes multiple thinking units; each…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Zihao Zeng , Xuyao Huang , Boxiu Li , Hao Zhang , Zhijie Deng

Conformal inference has played a pivotal role in providing uncertainty quantification for black-box ML prediction algorithms with finite sample guarantees. Traditionally, conformal prediction inference requires a data-independent…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-04 Siddhaarth Sarkar , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

In typical machine learning systems, an estimate of the probability of the prediction is used to assess the system's confidence in the prediction. This confidence measure is usually uncalibrated; i.e.\ the system's confidence in the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-05-24 Shehzaad Dhuliawala , Leonard Adolphs , Rajarshi Das , Mrinmaya Sachan

Recently, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have been widely applied to reasoning tasks. However, they suffer from limited multi-rationale semantic modeling, insufficient logical robustness, and are susceptible to misleading…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-08 Chuang Yu , Jinmiao Zhao , Mingxuan Zhao , Yunpeng Liu , Xiujun Shu , Yuanhao Feng , Bo Wang , Xiangyu Yue

Referring Camouflaged Object Detection (Ref-COD) focuses on segmenting specific camouflaged targets in a query image using category-aligned references. Despite recent advances, existing methods struggle with reference-target semantic…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Ye Wang , Kai Huang , Sumin Shen , Chenyang Ma

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) frequently suffer from visual perception errors and hallucinations that compromise answer accuracy in complex reasoning tasks. Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) offers a promising solution…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Yin Zhang , Jiaxuan Zhao , Zonghan Wu , Zengxiang Li , Junfeng Fang , Kun Wang , Qingsong Wen , Yilei Shao

The Partial Information Decomposition (PID) framework has emerged as a powerful tool for analyzing high-order interdependencies in complex network systems. However, its application to dynamic processes remains challenging due to the…

Prediction sets provide a means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictive tasks. Using held out calibration data, conformal prediction and risk control can produce prediction sets that exhibit statistically valid error control in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-05 Bror Hultberg , Dave Zachariah , Antônio H. Ribeiro

Composed image retrieval aims to find an image that best matches a given multi-modal user query consisting of a reference image and text pair. Existing methods commonly pre-compute image embeddings over the entire corpus and compare these…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-01-30 Zheyuan Liu , Weixuan Sun , Damien Teney , Stephen Gould

Conformal prediction is a non-parametric technique for constructing prediction intervals or sets from arbitrary predictive models under the assumption that the data is exchangeable. It is popular as it comes with theoretical guarantees on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Jase Clarkson , Wenkai Xu , Mihai Cucuringu , Yvik Swan , Gesine Reinert

Edge intelligence enables low-latency inference via compact on-device models, but assuring reliability remains challenging. We study edge-cloud cascades that must preserve conditional coverage: whenever the edge returns a prediction set, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Jiayi Huang , Sangwoo Park , Nicola Paoletti , Osvaldo Simeone

We revisit the problem of constructing predictive confidence sets for which we wish to obtain some type of conditional validity. We provide new arguments showing how ``split conformal'' methods achieve near desired coverage levels with high…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-04 John C. Duchi

Conformal prediction constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees, but its calibration stage is structurally constrained to a scalar score function and a single threshold variable - forcing shapes of prediction sets to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-13 Laura Lützow , Simone Garatti , Marco C. Campi , Lars Lindemann , Matthias Althoff

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free predictive intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage. However, achieving conditional validity and interval efficiency (in terms of short interval length) remains challenging, particularly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-06 Ran Zou , Wanrong Zhu , Bin Nan

Reinforcement learning post-training has substantially improved the reasoning accuracy of vision-language models, yet the resulting policies remain poorly calibrated. Terminal correctness rewards provide no gradient that penalizes confident…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Peng Cui , Boyao Yang , Jun Zhu

Our objective is to construct well-calibrated prediction sets for a time-to-event outcome subject to right-censoring with guaranteed coverage. Inspired by modern conformal inference, our approach avoids the need for a well-specified…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Rebecca Farina , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Large language models often struggle to recognize their knowledge limits in closed-book question answering, leading to confident hallucinations. While decomposed prompting is typically used to improve accuracy, we investigate its impact on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Dhruv Madhwal , Lyuxin David Zhang , Dan Roth , Tomer Wolfson , Vivek Gupta

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) exhibit promising advancements across various tasks, yet they still encounter significant trustworthiness issues. Prior studies apply Split Conformal Prediction (SCP) in language modeling to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Qingni Wang , Tiantian Geng , Zhiyuan Wang , Teng Wang , Bo Fu , Feng Zheng

Detecting student misconceptions in open-ended responses is a longstanding challenge, demanding semantic precision and logical reasoning. We propose MiRAGE - Misconception Detection with Retrieval-Guided Multi-Stage Reasoning and Ensemble…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Cuong Van Duc , Thai Tran Quoc , Minh Nguyen Dinh Tuan , Tam Vu Duc , Son Nguyen Van , Hanh Nguyen Thi