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Reliable semantic segmentation is essential for clinical decision making, yet deep models rarely provide explicit statistical guarantees on their errors. We introduce a simple post-hoc framework that constructs confidence masks with…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Luca Mossina , Corentin Friedrich

Reliable set-valued prediction provides a principled way to mitigate hallucinations in open-ended question answering (QA), yet existing conformal approaches typically rely on a fragile premise: finite sampling must already produce at least…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Anqi Hu , Zhiyuan Wang , Zijun Jia , Bo Fu

Trustworthy decision making in networked, dynamic environments calls for innovative uncertainty quantification substrates in predictive models for graph time series. Existing conformal prediction (CP) methods have been applied separately to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Sonakshi Dua , Gonzalo Mateos , Sundeep Prabhakar Chepuri

Conformal prediction delivers prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage, but its intervals can look overconfident in regions where the model is extrapolating, because standard conformal scores do not explicitly represent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-10 Luben M. C. Cabezas , Sabina J. Sloman , Bruno M. Resende , Fanyi Wu , Michele Caprio , Rafael Izbicki

In this work, we consider the problem of building distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample conditional coverage guarantees. Conformal prediction (CP) is an increasingly popular framework for building such intervals with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-29 Rohan Hore , Rina Foygel Barber

We present a new method for generating confidence sets within the split conformal prediction framework. Our method performs a trainable transformation of any given conformity score to improve conditional coverage while ensuring exact…

Deployed language models must decide not only what to answer but also when not to answer. We present UniCR, a unified framework that turns heterogeneous uncertainty evidence including sequence likelihoods, self-consistency dispersion,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Markus Oehri , Giulia Conti , Kaviraj Pather , Alexandre Rossi , Laia Serra , Adrian Parody , Rogvi Johannesen , Aviaja Petersen , Arben Krasniqi

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for constructing prediction sets with guaranteed coverage. However, recent studies have shown that integrating confidence calibration with CP can lead to a degradation in efficiency. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-25 Rui Luo , Nicolo Colombo

Modern deep learning based classifiers show very high accuracy on test data but this does not provide sufficient guarantees for safe deployment, especially in high-stake AI applications such as medical diagnosis. Usually, predictions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 David Stutz , Krishnamurthy , Dvijotham , Ali Taylan Cemgil , Arnaud Doucet

As large language models (LLMs) transition from general knowledge retrieval to complex scientific discovery, their evaluation standards must also incorporate the rigorous norms of scientific inquiry. Existing benchmarks exhibit a critical…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Encheng Su , Jianyu Wu , Chen Tang , Lintao Wang , Pengze Li , Aoran Wang , Jinouwen Zhang , Yizhou Wang , Yuan Meng , Xinzhu Ma , Shixiang Tang , Houqiang Li

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Conformal prediction (CP) is a framework to quantify uncertainty of machine learning classifiers including deep neural networks. Given a testing example and a trained classifier, CP produces a prediction set of candidate labels with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Subhankar Ghosh , Yuanjie Shi , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Jana Doppa , Brian Jones

Conformal prediction (CP) is a method for constructing a prediction interval around the output of a fitted model, whose validity does not rely on the model being correct--the CP interval offers a coverage guarantee that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Rina Foygel Barber

Explainable object recognition using vision-language models such as CLIP involves predicting accurate category labels supported by rationales that justify the decision-making process. Existing methods typically rely on prompt-based…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Ali Rasekh , Sepehr Kazemi Ranjbar , Simon Gottschalk

Constructing valid confidence sets is a crucial task in statistical inference, yet traditional methods often face challenges when dealing with complex models or limited observed sample sizes. These challenges are frequently encountered in…

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

Symbolic regression (SR) traditionally balances accuracy and complexity, implicitly assuming that simpler formulas are structurally more rational. We argue that this assumption is insufficient: existing algorithms often exploit this metric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Zihan Yu , Guanren Wang , Jingtao Ding , Huandong Wang , Yong Li

Counterfactual explanations (CFXs) provide human-understandable justifications for model predictions, enabling actionable recourse and enhancing interpretability. To be reliable, CFXs must avoid regions of high predictive uncertainty, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Aman Bilkhoo , Mehran Hosseini , Milad Kazemi , Nicola Paoletti

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Gauthier Thurin , Kimia Nadjahi , Claire Boyer

We propose the conditional predictive impact (CPI), a consistent and unbiased estimator of the association between one or several features and a given outcome, conditional on a reduced feature set. Building on the knockoff framework of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-14 David S. Watson , Marvin N. Wright