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Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) represent a paradigm shift in tabular data prediction. We present the principles of this new paradigm and evaluate two PFNs for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of a binary treatment on a…

In recent years, the transformer has established itself as a workhorse in many applications ranging from natural language processing to reinforcement learning. Similarly, Bayesian deep learning has become the gold-standard for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-18 Tristan Cinquin , Alexander Immer , Max Horn , Vincent Fortuin

Prior-Fitted Networks (PFNs) amortize Bayesian prediction by meta-learning over a synthetic task prior, but their standard output is a posterior predictive distribution over noisy observations. For sequential decision-making, such as active…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Richard Bergna , Stefan Depeweg , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Despite exceptional predictive performance of Deep sequence models (DSMs), the main concern of their deployment centers around the lack of uncertainty awareness. In contrast, probabilistic models quantify the uncertainty associated with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Wenlong Chen

Backpropagation (BP) is the standard algorithm for training the deep neural networks that power modern artificial intelligence including large language models. However, BP is energy inefficient and unlikely to be implemented by the brain.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Francesco Innocenti

Planning effective interventions in biological systems requires treatment-effect models that adapt to unseen biological contexts by identifying their specific underlying mechanisms. Yet single-cell perturbation datasets span only a handful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Marvin Sextro , Weronika Kłos , Gabriel Dernbach

Spatial Transformer Networks (STNs) estimate image transformations that can improve downstream tasks by `zooming in' on relevant regions in an image. However, STNs are hard to train and sensitive to mis-predictions of transformations. To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-16 Pola Schwöbel , Frederik Warburg , Martin Jørgensen , Kristoffer H. Madsen , Søren Hauberg

Neural networks are popular state-of-the-art models for many different tasks.They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-29 Simón Rodríguez Santana , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Andrew Wood , Moshik Hershcovitch , Daniel Waddington , Sarel Cohen , Peter Chin

Large transformer models trained on diverse datasets have shown a remarkable ability to learn in-context, achieving high few-shot performance on tasks they were not explicitly trained to solve. In this paper, we study the in-context…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-27 Jonathan N. Lee , Annie Xie , Aldo Pacchiano , Yash Chandak , Chelsea Finn , Ofir Nachum , Emma Brunskill

Transformers are neural networks that revolutionized natural language processing and machine learning. They process sequences of inputs, like words, using a mechanism called self-attention, which is trained via masked language modeling…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2024-04-17 Riccardo Rende , Federica Gerace , Alessandro Laio , Sebastian Goldt

Deep learning for distribution grid optimization can be advocated as a promising solution for near-optimal yet timely inverter dispatch. The principle is to train a deep neural network (DNN) to predict the solutions of an optimal power flow…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-07-09 Manish K. Singh , Sarthak Gupta , Vassilis Kekatos , Guido Cavraro , Andrey Bernstein

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Alexander Pritzel , Charles Blundell

Sum-product networks (SPNs) are probabilistic models characterized by exact and fast evaluation of fundamental probabilistic operations. Its superior computational tractability has led to applications in many fields, such as machine…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-19 Soma Yokoi , Issei Sato

Transformers are deep architectures that define "in-context mappings" which enable predicting new tokens based on a given set of tokens (such as a prompt in NLP applications or a set of patches for a vision transformer). In this work, we…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Takashi Furuya , Maarten V. de Hoop , Gabriel Peyré

Bayesian decision theory provides an elegant framework for acting optimally under uncertainty when tractable posterior distributions are available. Modern Bayesian models, however, typically involve intractable posteriors that are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-15 Meet P. Vadera , Soumya Ghosh , Kenney Ng , Benjamin M. Marlin

This paper investigates the key role of Feed-Forward Networks (FFNs) in transformer models by utilizing the Parallel Attention and Feed-Forward Net Design (PAF) architecture, and comparing it to their Series Attention and Feed-Forward Net…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-26 Shashank Sonkar , Richard G. Baraniuk

We introduce a new approach to prediction in graphical models with latent-shift adaptation, i.e., where source and target environments differ in the distribution of an unobserved confounding latent variable. Previous work has shown that as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-26 William I. Walker , Arthur Gretton , Maneesh Sahani

Achieving robust uncertainty quantification for deep neural networks represents an important requirement in many real-world applications of deep learning such as medical imaging where it is necessary to assess the reliability of a neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-15 Tim Rensmeyer , Oliver Niggemann

Bayesian inference for inverse problems hinges critically on the choice of priors. In the absence of specific prior information, population-level distributions can serve as effective priors for parameters of interest. With the advent of…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-02-11 Gabriel Missael Barco , Alexandre Adam , Connor Stone , Yashar Hezaveh , Laurence Perreault-Levasseur