Related papers: SL-BiLEM: Structured Learnable Behavior-in-the-Loo…

Advanced epidemic forecasting is critical for enabling precision containment strategies, highlighting its strategic importance for public health security. While recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated effectiveness…

Individual prevention behaviors are a primary line of defense during the early stages of novel infectious disease outbreaks, yet their adoption is heterogeneous and difficult to forecast-especially when empirical data are scarce and…

Predicting how populations respond to policy interventions is a fundamental challenge in computational social science and public policy. Traditional approaches rely on aggregate statistical models that capture historical correlations but…

Predicting human decision-making in high-stakes environments remains a central challenge for artificial intelligence. While large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong general reasoning, they often struggle to generate consistent,…

Large language models are increasingly used as computational tools for modeling human-like behavior. We introduce a behavioral induction framework that modifies model policies through fine-tuning on structured decision-making tasks: using…

Forecasting the short-term spread of an ongoing disease outbreak is a formidable challenge due to the complexity of contributing factors, some of which can be characterized through interlinked, multi-modality variables such as…

Spatio-temporal epidemic forecasting is critical for public health management, yet existing methods often struggle with insensitivity to weak epidemic signals, over-simplified spatial relations, and unstable parameter estimation. To address…

Accurate forecasts of the number of newly infected people during an epidemic are critical for making effective timely decisions. This paper addresses this challenge using the SIMLR model, which incorporates machine learning (ML) into the…

We document inverse scaling in LLMs on forecasting problems whose underlying time series exhibit superlinear growth and tail risk of regime change, a structure common in finance and epidemiology. On these tasks, more capable models produce…

The spreading dynamics of infectious diseases is influenced by individual behaviours, which are in turn affected by the level of awareness about the epidemic. Modelling the co-evolution of disease transmission and behavioural changes within…

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) inference learns interpretable logical rules for temporal behaviors in dynamical systems. To ensure the correctness of learned STL formulas, recent approaches have incorporated conformal prediction as a…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to encode clinical knowledge. Many evaluations, however, rely on structured question-answer benchmarks, overlooking critical challenges of interpreting and reasoning about unstructured clinical…

Human motion prediction has traditionally been framed as a sequence regression problem where models extrapolate future joint coordinates from observed pose histories. While effective over short horizons this approach does not separate…

New coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has constituted a global pandemic and has spread to most countries and regions in the world. By understanding the development trend of a regional epidemic, the epidemic can be controlled using the…

Visuomotor policies trained via behavior cloning are vulnerable to covariate shift, where small deviations from expert trajectories can compound into failure. Common strategies to mitigate this issue involve expanding the training…

For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…

This paper provides a comprehensive survey of recent advancements in leveraging machine learning techniques, particularly Transformer models, for predicting human mobility patterns during epidemics. Understanding how people move during…

Supporting students in developing diagnostic reasoning is a key challenge across educational domains. Novices often face cognitive biases such as premature closure and over-reliance on heuristics, and they struggle to transfer diagnostic…

Since infectious pathogens start spreading into a susceptible population, mathematical models can provide policy makers with reliable forecasts and scenario analyses, which can be concretely implemented or solely consulted. In these complex…

Epidemiological forecasting from surveillance data is a hard problem and hybridizing mechanistic compartmental models with neural models is a natural direction. The mechanistic structure helps keep trajectories epidemiologically plausible,…