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Seasonal forecasting remains challenging due to the inherent chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics. This paper introduces DeepSeasons, a novel deep learning approach designed to enhance the accuracy and reliability of seasonal forecasts.…

Producing probabilistic forecasts for large collections of similar and/or dependent time series is a practically relevant and challenging task. Classical time series models fail to capture complex patterns in the data, and multivariate…

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free uncertainty quantification for machine learning models, yet its interplay with fairness in downstream decision-making remains underexplored. Moving beyond CP as a standalone operation…

Conformal prediction constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees, but its calibration stage is structurally constrained to a scalar score function and a single threshold variable - forcing shapes of prediction sets to…

Time series are generated in diverse domains such as economic, traffic, health, and energy, where forecasting of future values has numerous important applications. Not surprisingly, many forecasting methods are being proposed. To ensure…

Configuration tuning for large software systems is generally challenging due to the complex configuration space and expensive performance evaluation. Most existing approaches follow a two-phase process, first learning a regression-based…

Frontier AI models have achieved remarkable progress, yet recent studies suggest they struggle with compositional reasoning, often performing at or below random chance on established benchmarks. We revisit this problem and show that widely…

With the advent of Transformers, time series forecasting has seen significant advances, yet it remains challenging due to the need for effective sequence representation, memory construction, and accurate target projection. Time series…

We introduce DafnyCOMP, a benchmark for evaluating large language models (LLMs) on compositional specification generation in Dafny. Unlike prior benchmarks that focus on single-function tasks, DafnyCOMP targets programs composed of multiple…

We introduce VideoComp, a benchmark and learning framework for advancing video-text compositionality understanding, aimed at improving vision-language models (VLMs) in fine-grained temporal alignment. Unlike existing benchmarks focused on…

There are now a broad range of time series classification (TSC) algorithms designed to exploit different representations of the data. These have been evaluated on a range of problems hosted at the UCR-UEA TSC Archive…

The evaluation of time series forecasting models is hindered by a lack of high-quality benchmarks, leading to overestimated assessments of progress. Existing datasets suffer from issues ranging from small-scale, low-frequency, pre-training…

Long-context processing has become a fundamental capability for large language models~(LLMs). To assess model's long-context performance, numerous long-context evaluation benchmarks have been proposed. However, variations in evaluation…

Efficient management of spare parts inventory is crucial in the automotive aftermarket, where demand is highly intermittent and uncertainty drives substantial cost and service risks. Forecasting is therefore central, but the quality of…

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) such as Lag-Llama, TimeGPT, Chronos, MOMENT, UniTS, and TimesFM have shown strong generalization and zero-shot capabilities for time series forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, and…

Multi-object tracking (MOT) is critical in numerous real-world applications, including surveillance, autonomous driving, and robotics. Accurately predicting object motion is fundamental to MOT, but current methods struggle with the…

Machine learning for early syndrome diagnosis aims to solve the intricate task of predicting a ground truth label that most often is the outcome (effect) of a medical consensus definition applied to observed clinical measurements (causes),…

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is widely recognized as a central challenge in data mining and machine learning. LTSF has increasingly evolved into a benchmark-driven ''GAME,'' where models are ranked, compared, and declared…

Systems are commonly monitored for health and security through collection and streaming of multivariate time series. Advances in time series forecasting due to adoption of multilayer recurrent neural network architectures make it possible…

Time series forecasting is a fundamental tool with wide ranging applications, yet recent debates question whether complex nonlinear architectures truly outperform simple linear models. Prior claims of dominance of the linear model often…