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Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Yang Cai , Alkis Kalavasis , Katerina Mamali , Anay Mehrotra , Manolis Zampetakis

This paper develops a sensitivity analysis framework that transfers the average total treatment effect (ATTE) from source data with a fully observed network to target data whose network is completely unknown. The ATTE represents the average…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-17 Tadao Hoshino

Subgroup analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) constitute an important component of the drug development process in precision medicine. In particular, subgroup analyses of early-stage trials often influence the design and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-12 Daniel Schwartz , Riddhiman Saha , Steffen Ventz , Lorenzo Trippa

To effectively optimize and personalize treatments, it is necessary to investigate the heterogeneity of treatment effects. With the wide range of users being treated over many online controlled experiments, the typical approach of manually…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-07 John Cai , Weinan Wang

Given a dataset of individuals each described by a covariate vector, a treatment, and an observed outcome on the treatment, the goal of the individual treatment effect (ITE) estimation task is to predict outcome changes resulting from a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Lokesh Nagalapatti , Pranava Singhal , Avishek Ghosh , Sunita Sarawagi

In a given randomized experiment, individuals are often volunteers and can differ in important ways from a population of interest. It is thus of interest to focus on the sample at hand. This paper focuses on inference about the sample local…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-23 Zhen Zhong , Per Johansson , Junni L. Zhang

Across a wide array of disciplines, many researchers use machine learning (ML) algorithms to identify a subgroup of individuals who are likely to benefit from a treatment the most (``exceptional responders'') or those who are harmed by it.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Michael Lingzhi Li , Kosuke Imai

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the accepted standard for treatment effect estimation but they can be infeasible due to ethical reasons and prohibitive costs. Single-arm trials, where all patients belong to the treatment group, can…

When evaluating the efficacy of social programs and medical treatments using randomized experiments, the estimated overall average causal effect alone is often of limited value and the researchers must investigate when the treatments do and…

Applications · Statistics 2013-05-27 Kosuke Imai , Marc Ratkovic

This paper considers identifying and estimating the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) when untreated potential outcomes are generated by an interactive fixed effects model. That is, in addition to time-period and individual…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-15 Brantly Callaway , Sonia Karami

This paper develops a novel nonparametric identification method for treatment effects in settings where individuals self-select into treatment sequences. I propose an identification strategy which relies on a dynamic version of standard…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-05 Pedro Picchetti

We propose a novel multi-task neural network approach for estimating distributional treatment effects (DTE) in randomized experiments. While DTE provides more granular insights into the experiment outcomes over conventional methods focusing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Tomu Hirata , Undral Byambadalai , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui , Shingo Uto

An individualized treatment rule (ITR) is a decision rule that aims to improve individual patients health outcomes by recommending optimal treatments according to patients specific information. In observational studies, collected data may…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-03 Zeyu Bian , Erica EM Moodie , Susan M Shortreed , Sylvie D Lambert , Sahir Bhatnagar

Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) prediction is an important area of research in machine learning which aims at explaining and estimating the causal impact of an action at the granular level. It represents a problem of growing interest in…

This paper provides estimation and inference methods for a conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high-dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross-sectional and unit-heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Vira Semenova , Matt Goldman , Victor Chernozhukov , Matt Taddy

We develop a new identification strategy for average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) in panel data with discrete outcomes. Standard difference-in-differences (DiD) relies on parallel trends, which is frequently violated in…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-10 Young Ahn , Hiroyuki Kasahara

There are a number of available methods for selecting whom to prioritize for treatment, including ones based on treatment effect estimation, risk scoring, and hand-crafted rules. We propose rank-weighted average treatment effect (RATE)…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-30 Steve Yadlowsky , Scott Fleming , Nigam Shah , Emma Brunskill , Stefan Wager

To minimize the mean squared error (MSE) in global average treatment effect (GATE) estimation under network interference, a popular approach is to use a cluster-randomized design. However, in the presence of homophily, which is common in…

Analyses of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) are common in applied causal inference research. However, when outcomes are latent variables assessed via psychometric instruments such as educational tests, standard methods ignore the…

Estimating individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational graph data is crucial for decision-making in the fields such as commerce and medicine. This task is challenging due to interference, where individual outcomes can be influenced…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Xiaofeng Lin , Han Bao , Hisashi Kashima