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Bayesian inference is used extensively to quantify the uncertainty in an inferred field given the measurement of a related field when the two are linked by a mathematical model. Despite its many applications, Bayesian inference faces…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-31 Dhruv V. Patel , Assad A. Oberai

Bayesian observer and actor models have provided normative explanations for many behavioral phenomena in perception, sensorimotor control, and other areas of cognitive science and neuroscience. They attribute behavioral variability and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Dominik Straub , Tobias F. Niehues , Jan Peters , Constantin A. Rothkopf

We propose Gradient Informed Neural Networks (GradINNs), a methodology inspired by Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) that can be used to efficiently approximate a wide range of physical systems for which the underlying governing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-04 Filippo Aglietti , Francesco Della Santa , Andrea Piano , Virginia Aglietti

Causal sensitivity analysis aims to provide bounds for causal effect estimates in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, existing methods for causal sensitivity analysis are per-instance procedures, meaning that changes to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-12 Emil Javurek , Dennis Frauen , Marie Brockschmidt , Jonas Schweisthal , Stefan Feuerriegel

This paper introduces an algorithm-agnostic approach to feature-based time series clustering via amortized neural inference. By training neural networks to approximate the optimal partitioning rule from simulated data, the proposed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Ángel López-Oriona , Ying Sun

Gaussian state space models have been used for decades as generative models of sequential data. They admit an intuitive probabilistic interpretation, have a simple functional form, and enjoy widespread adoption. We introduce a unified…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-06 Rahul G. Krishnan , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

Foundation models based on prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have shown strong empirical performance in causal inference by framing the task as an in-context learning problem.However, it is unclear whether PFN-based causal estimators…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Valentyn Melnychuk , Vahid Balazadeh , Stefan Feuerriegel , Rahul G. Krishnan

This work proposes ``jointly amortized neural approximation'' (JANA) of intractable likelihood functions and posterior densities arising in Bayesian surrogate modeling and simulation-based inference. We train three complementary networks in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Stefan T. Radev , Marvin Schmitt , Valentin Pratz , Umberto Picchini , Ullrich Köthe , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Inference for mechanistic models is challenging because of nonlinear interactions between model parameters and a lack of identifiability. Here we focus on a specific class of mechanistic models, which we term stable differential equations.…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-13 Philip Maybank , Ingo Bojak , Richard G. Everitt

We propose an efficient framework for amortized conditional inference by leveraging exact conditional score-guided diffusion models to train a non-reversible neural network as a conditional generative model. Traditional normalizing flow…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Zezhong Zhang , Caroline Tatsuoka , Dongbin Xiu , Guannan Zhang

We introduce scalable algorithms for online learning of neural network parameters and Bayesian sequential decision making. Unlike classical Bayesian neural networks, which induce predictive uncertainty through a posterior over model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Gerardo Duran-Martin , Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt , Álvaro Cartea , Kevin Murphy

In Bayesian inference prior hyperparameters are chosen subjectively or estimated using empirical Bayes methods. Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI) also has a learning rate hyperparameter. This is compounded in Semi-Modular Inference…

Building predictive models for tabular data presents fundamental challenges, notably in scaling consistently, i.e., more resources translating to better performance, and generalizing systematically beyond the training data distribution.…

In this paper, we propose a parametrised factor that enables inference on Gaussian networks where linear dependencies exist among the random variables. Our factor representation is effectively a generalisation of traditional Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-05 J. C. Schoeman , C. E. van Daalen , J. A. du Preez

Federated learning methods enable model training across distributed data sources without data leaving their original locations and have gained increasing interest in various fields. However, existing approaches are limited, excluding many…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-10 Conor Hassan , Robert Salomone , Kerrie Mengersen

Many modern experiments, such as microarray gene expression and genome-wide association studies, present the problem of estimating a large number of parallel effects. Bayesian inference is a popular approach for analyzing such data by…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-26 J G Liao , Arthur Berg , Timothy L McMurry

Iterative approximation methods using backpropagation enable the optimization of neural networks, but they remain computationally expensive, especially when used at scale. This paper presents an efficient alternative for optimizing neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-14 Jake Ryland Williams , Haoran Zhao

In clinical practice, full imaging is not always feasible, often due to complex acquisition protocols, stringent privacy regulations, or specific clinical needs. However, missing MR modalities pose significant challenges for tasks like…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-23 Aghiles Kebaili , Jérôme Lapuyade-Lahorgue , Pierre Vera , Su Ruan

In order to integrate uncertainty estimates into deep time-series modelling, Kalman Filters (KFs) (Kalman et al., 1960) have been integrated with deep learning models, however, such approaches typically rely on approximate inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-20 Philipp Becker , Harit Pandya , Gregor Gebhardt , Cheng Zhao , James Taylor , Gerhard Neumann

Accurately predicting vapor pressure is vital for various industrial and environmental applications. However, obtaining accurate measurements for all compounds of interest is not possible due to the resource and labor intensity of…