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Graphs arise across diverse domains, from biology and chemistry to social and information networks, as well as in transportation and logistics. Inference on graph-structured data requires methods that are permutation-invariant, scalable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Svenja Jedhoff , Elizaveta Semenova , Aura Raulo , Anne Meyer , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Many critical applications, from autonomous scientific discovery to personalized medicine, demand systems that can both strategically acquire the most informative data and instantaneously perform inference based upon it. While amortized…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-22 Daolang Huang , Xinyi Wen , Ayush Bharti , Samuel Kaski , Luigi Acerbi

In recent years, differentiable penalized likelihood methods have gained popularity, optimizing the causal structure by maximizing its likelihood with respect to the data. However, recent research has shown that errors in likelihood…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Mateusz Sypniewski , Mateusz Olko , Mateusz Gajewski , Piotr Miłoś

Bayesian inference provides a natural way of incorporating prior beliefs and assigning a probability measure to the space of hypotheses. Current solutions rely on iterative routines like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Sarthak Mittal , Niels Leif Bracher , Guillaume Lajoie , Priyank Jaini , Marcus Brubaker

Simulation-based methods for statistical inference have evolved dramatically over the past 50 years, keeping pace with technological advancements. The field is undergoing a new revolution as it embraces the representational capacity of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-11 Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Matthew Sainsbury-Dale , Raphaël Huser

Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-06 Nan Feng , Xun Huan

Inferring causal structure poses a combinatorial search problem that typically involves evaluating structures with a score or independence test. The resulting search is costly, and designing suitable scores or tests that capture prior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Lars Lorch , Scott Sussex , Jonas Rothfuss , Andreas Krause , Bernhard Schölkopf

Neural posterior estimation has emerged as a powerful tool for amortized inference, with growing adoption across scientific and applied domains. In many of these applications, the conditioning variable is a set of observations whose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Antoine Wehenkel , Michael Kagan , Lukas Heinrich , Chris Pollard

Bayesian inference promises a framework for principled uncertainty quantification of neural network predictions. Barriers to adoption include the difficulty of fully characterizing posterior distributions on network parameters and the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-22 Katharine Fisher , Youssef Marzouk

Inference networks of traditional Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are typically amortized, resulting in relatively inaccurate posterior approximation compared to instance-wise variational optimization. Recent semi-amortized approaches were…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-18 Minyoung Kim , Vladimir Pavlovic

Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) are a powerful modeling tool, able to represent any computable probability distribution. Unfortunately, probabilistic program inference is often intractable, and existing PPLs mostly rely on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-10-19 Daniel Ritchie , Paul Horsfall , Noah D. Goodman

We present an iterative framework to improve the amortized approximations of posterior distributions in the context of Bayesian inverse problems, which is inspired by loop-unrolled gradient descent methods and is theoretically grounded in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-16 Rafael Orozco , Ali Siahkoohi , Mathias Louboutin , Felix J. Herrmann

Variational inference provides approximations to the computationally intractable posterior distribution in Bayesian networks. A prominent medical application of noisy-or Bayesian network is to infer potential diseases given observed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-05-23 Yusheng Xie , Nan Du , Wei Fan , Jing Zhai , Weicheng Zhu

Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference is to initially invest computational cost in training an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-25 Manuel Glöckler , Michael Deistler , Jakob H. Macke

One of the core facets of Bayesianism is in the updating of prior beliefs in light of new evidence$\text{ -- }$so how can we maintain a Bayesian approach if we have no prior beliefs in the first place? This is one of the central challenges…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Tommy Rochussen , Vincent Fortuin

Efficient exploration is one of the most important issues in deep reinforcement learning. To address this issue, recent methods consider the value function parameters as random variables, and resort variational inference to approximate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-04 Haotian Zhang , Yuhao Wang , Jianyong Sun , Zongben Xu

This paper presents a fast algorithm for estimating hidden states of Bayesian state space models. The algorithm is a variation of amortized simulation-based inference algorithms, where a large number of artificial datasets are generated at…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-10-14 Ramis Khabibullin , Sergei Seleznev

Variational methods that rely on a recognition network to approximate the posterior of directed graphical models offer better inference and learning than previous methods. Recent advances that exploit the capacity and flexibility in this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-21 R Devon Hjelm , Kyunghyun Cho , Junyoung Chung , Russ Salakhutdinov , Vince Calhoun , Nebojsa Jojic

Complex simulator-based models are now routinely used to perform inference across the sciences and engineering, but existing inference methods are often unable to account for outliers and other extreme values in data which occur due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-18 Ayush Bharti , Charita Dellaporta , Yuga Hikida , François-Xavier Briol

Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods has explored ever richer parameterizations of the…