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Foundation models (FMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their success has not yet translated to time series forecasting. Existing time series foundation models (TSFMs), often based on transformer variants, struggle with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Lars Graf , Thomas Ortner , Stanisław Woźniak , Angeliki Pantazi

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have become increasingly popular for zero-shot forecasting. However, for a new time series domain not fully covered by the pretraining set, performance can suffer. Therefore, when a practitioner cares…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Thomas L. Lee , Edoardo M. Ponti , Amos Storkey

Driven by the transition towards a climate-neutral energy system, accurate energy time series forecasting is critical for planning and operation. Yet, it remains largely a dataset-specific task, requiring comprehensive training data,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Marco Obermeier , Marco Pruckner , Florian Haselbeck , Andreas Zeiselmair

Heterogeneity in time series data is more pronounced than in vision or language, as temporal dynamics vary substantially across domains and tasks. Existing efforts on training time series foundation models (TSFMs) from scratch are often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-09 Shengchao Chen , Guodong Long , Dikai Liu , Jing Jiang

Large language models (LLMs) have been introduced to time series forecasting (TSF) to incorporate contextual knowledge beyond numerical signals. However, existing studies question whether LLMs provide genuine benefits, often reporting…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Xin Qiu , Junlong Tong , Yirong Sun , Yunpu Ma , Wei Zhang , Xiaoyu Shen

Time series reasoning is crucial to decision-making in diverse domains, including finance, energy usage, traffic, weather, and scientific discovery. While existing time series foundation models (TSFMs) can capture low-level dynamic patterns…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Fangxu Yu , Hongyu Zhao , Tianyi Zhou

Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) have demonstrated strong generalization capabilities across diverse datasets and tasks. However, existing foundation models are typically pre-trained to enhance performance on specific tasks and often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Shangqing Xu , Harshavardhan Kamarthi , Haoxin Liu , B. Aditya Prakash

Over the past decade, Time Series Classification (TSC) has gained an increasing attention. While various methods were explored, deep learning - particularly through Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs)-stands out as an effective approach.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Ali Ismail-Fawaz , Maxime Devanne , Stefano Berretti , Jonathan Weber , Germain Forestier

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are transforming the field of forecasting. However, evaluating them on historical data is increasingly difficult due to the risks of train-test sample overlaps and temporal overlaps between correlated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Marcel Meyer , Sascha Kaltenpoth , Henrik Albers , Kevin Zalipski , Oliver Müller

Inspired by the success of large language models (LLMs) in natural language processing, recent research has explored the building of time series foundation models and applied them to tasks such as forecasting, classification, and anomaly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Chihiro Maru , Shoetsu Sato

The evaluation of time series forecasting models is hindered by a lack of high-quality benchmarks, leading to overestimated assessments of progress. Existing datasets suffer from issues ranging from small-scale, low-frequency, pre-training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Zhijian Xu , Wanxu Cai , Xilin Dai , Zhaorong Deng , Qiang Xu

Pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) encapsulate large amounts of knowledge and take enormous amounts of compute to train. We make use of this resource, together with the observation that LLMs are able to transfer knowledge and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Malcolm L. Wolff , Shenghao Yang , Kari Torkkola , Michael W. Mahoney

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) require diverse, real-world datasets to adapt across varying domains and temporal frequencies. However, current large-scale datasets predominantly focus on low-frequency time series with sampling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-22 Subina Khanal , Seshu Tirupathi , Merim Dzaferagic , Marco Ruffini , Torben Bach Pedersen

Foundational models (FMs), pretrained on extensive datasets using self-supervised techniques, are capable of learning generalized patterns from large amounts of data. This reduces the need for extensive labeled datasets for each new task,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-19 Quan M. Tran , Suong N. Hoang , Lam M. Nguyen , Dzung Phan , Hoang Thanh Lam

The development of tabular foundation models (TFMs) has accelerated in recent years, showing strong potential to outperform traditional ML methods for structured data. A key finding is that TFMs can be pretrained entirely on synthetic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Matthew Peroni , Franck Le , Vadim Sheinin

Large pre-trained models have been vital in recent advancements in domains like language and vision, making model training for individual downstream tasks more efficient and provide superior performance. However, tackling time-series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-06 Harshavardhan Kamarthi , B. Aditya Prakash

Time series forecasting is an important and forefront task in many real-world applications. However, most of time series forecasting techniques assume that the training data is clean without anomalies. This assumption is unrealistic since…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Hao Cheng , Qingsong Wen , Yang Liu , Liang Sun

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) leverage extensive pretraining to accurately predict unseen time series during inference, without the need for task-specific fine-tuning. Through large-scale evaluations on standard benchmarks, we find…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Anthony Bao , Venkata Hasith Vattikuti , Jeffrey Lai , William Gilpin

As large language models achieve increasingly impressive results, questions arise about whether such performance is from generalizability or mere data memorization. Thus, numerous data contamination detection methods have been proposed.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-10 Vinay Samuel , Yue Zhou , Henry Peng Zou

Existing data-driven methods rely on the extraction of static features from time series to approximate the material removal rate (MRR) of semiconductor manufacturing processes such as chemical mechanical polishing (CMP). However, this leads…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-08 Jonathan Adam Rico , Nagarajan Raghavan , Senthilnath Jayavelu