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Training machine learning and statistical models often involves optimizing a data-driven risk criterion. The risk is usually computed with respect to the empirical data distribution, but this may result in poor and unstable out-of-sample…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-11 Nicola Bariletto , Nhat Ho

There is a significant need for principled uncertainty reasoning in machine learning systems as they are increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains. A new approach with uncertainty-aware regression-based neural networks (NNs), based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-21 Nis Meinert , Jakob Gawlikowski , Alexander Lavin

The Dirichlet Belief Network~(DirBN) has been recently proposed as a promising approach in learning interpretable deep latent representations for objects. In this work, we leverage its interpretable modelling architecture and propose a deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-30 Yaqiong Li , Xuhui Fan , Ling Chen , Bin Li , Zheng Yu , Scott A. Sisson

Uncertainty quantification and robustness to distribution shifts are important goals in machine learning and artificial intelligence. Although Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) allow for uncertainty in the predictions to be assessed,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-23 Michele Caprio , Souradeep Dutta , Kuk Jin Jang , Vivian Lin , Radoslav Ivanov , Oleg Sokolsky , Insup Lee

Symbolic regression discovers explicit, interpretable equations without assuming a functional form in advance. A Bayesian approach strengthens this through probability distributions over candidate expressions, thus quantifying uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 James Butterworth , Gevik Grigorian , Alejandro DiazDelaO

Neural network classifiers trained with cross-entropy loss achieve strong predictive accuracy but lack the capability to provide inherent predictive uncertainty estimates, thus requiring external techniques to obtain these estimates. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-08 Courtney Franzen , Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki

Causal representation learning seeks to uncover causal relationships among high-level latent variables from low-level, entangled, and noisy observations. Existing approaches often either rely on deep neural networks, which lack…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Wenjin Zhang , Yixin Wang , Yuqi Gu

Although deep neural networks have demonstrated significant success due to their powerful expressiveness, most models struggle to meet practical requirements for uncertainty estimation. Concurrently, the entangled nature of deep neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Xinyue Hu , Zhibin Duan , Bo Chen , Mingyuan Zhou

We report a scalable hybrid quantum-classical machine learning framework to build Bayesian networks (BN) that captures the conditional dependence and causal relationships of random variables. The generation of a BN consists of finding a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-31 Radhakrishnan Balu , Ajinkya Borle

Motivation: Several different threads of research have been proposed for modeling and mining temporal data. On the one hand, approaches such as dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) provide a formal probabilistic basis to model relationships…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2009-04-15 Debprakash Patnaik , Srivatsan Laxman , Naren Ramakrishnan

Due to its causal semantics, Bayesian networks (BN) have been widely employed to discover the underlying data relationship in exploratory studies, such as brain research. Despite its success in modeling the probability distribution of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2015-06-24 Luping Zhou , Lei Wang , Lingqiao Liu , Philip Ogunbona , Dinggang Shen

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. However, in BNNs the priors are often specified over the weights which rarely reflects true prior knowledge in large and complex neural network…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-25 Vishnu Raj , Tianyu Cui , Markus Heinonen , Pekka Marttinen

Machine learning applications such as finance and medicine demand accurate and justifiable predictions, barring most deep learning methods from use. In response, previous work combines decision trees with deep learning, yielding models that…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-01-29 Alvin Wan , Lisa Dunlap , Daniel Ho , Jihan Yin , Scott Lee , Henry Jin , Suzanne Petryk , Sarah Adel Bargal , Joseph E. Gonzalez

Interpretability is crucial for machine learning in many scenarios such as quantitative finance, banking, healthcare, etc. Symbolic regression (SR) is a classic interpretable machine learning method by bridging X and Y using mathematical…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-17 Ying Jin , Weilin Fu , Jian Kang , Jiadong Guo , Jian Guo

We introduce NeuralSurv, the first deep survival model to incorporate Bayesian uncertainty quantification. Our non-parametric, architecture-agnostic framework captures time-varying covariate-risk relationships in continuous time via a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Mélodie Monod , Alessandro Micheli , Samir Bhatt

While modern machine learning has transformed numerous application domains, its growing computational demands increasingly constrain scalability and efficiency, particularly on embedded and resource-limited platforms. In practice, neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Bernhard Klein

Inspired by advances in LLMs, reasoning-enhanced sequential recommendation performs multi-step deliberation before making final predictions, unlocking greater potential for capturing user preferences. However, current methods are…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Yifan Shao , Peilin Zhou , Shoujin Wang , Weizhi Zhang , Xu Cai , Sunghun Kim

Modeling uncertainty in deep neural networks, despite recent important advances, is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are a powerful solution, where the prior over network weights is a design choice, often a normal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Yaniv Gurwicz , Shami Nisimov , Gal Novik

A challenging problem when studying a dynamical system is to find the interdependencies among its individual components. Several algorithms have been proposed to detect directed dynamical influences between time series. Two of the most used…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-09-09 Alessandro Montalto , Sebastiano Stramaglia , Luca Faes , Giovanni Tessitore , Roberto Prevete , Daniele Marinazzo

Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-30 Tim Pearce , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely
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