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Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Miao Xiong , Zhiyuan Hu , Xinyang Lu , Yifei Li , Jie Fu , Junxian He , Bryan Hooi

Large language models (LLMs) often generate fluent but factually incorrect outputs, known as hallucinations, which undermine their reliability in real-world applications. While uncertainty estimation has emerged as a promising strategy for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Pei-Fu Guo , Yun-Da Tsai , Shou-De Lin

Large language models (LLMs) frequently produce contextual hallucinations, where generated content contradicts or ignores information explicitly stated in the prompt. Such errors are particularly problematic in deterministic automation…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-05 Nils Rautenberg , Sven Schippkus

Recent work has sought to quantify large language model uncertainty to facilitate model control and modulate user trust. Previous works focus on measures of uncertainty that are theoretically grounded or reflect the average overt behavior…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Kyle Moore , Jesse Roberts , Daryl Watson , Pamela Wisniewski

Large Language Models (LLMs) show remarkable proficiency in natural language tasks, yet their frequent overconfidence-misalignment between predicted confidence and true correctness-poses significant risks in critical decision-making…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Prateek Chhikara

Biomedical retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) often face evidence that is incomplete, misleading, or internally contradictory, yet evaluation usually emphasizes answer accuracy under helpful context rather than reliability…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Yikun Han , Mengfei Lan , Halil Kilicoglu

Multi-agent debates have been introduced to improve the accuracy of Large Language Models (LLMs) by having multiple agents discuss solutions to a problem over several rounds of debate. However, models often generate incorrect yet…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Luke Yoffe , Alfonso Amayuelas , William Yang Wang

Despite the remarkable abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to answer questions, they often display a considerable level of overconfidence even when the question does not have a definitive answer. To avoid providing hallucinated…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-03 Yang Deng , Yong Zhao , Moxin Li , See-Kiong Ng , Tat-Seng Chua

Uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying reasoning language models, yet remains poorly understood under extended chain-of-thought reasoning. We study parallel sampling as a fully black-box approach using verbalized confidence and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Maksym Del , Markus Kängsepp , Marharyta Domnich , Ardi Tampuu , Lisa Yankovskaya , Meelis Kull , Mark Fishel

Autoregressive decoding makes the inference of Large Language Models (LLMs) time-consuming. In this paper, we reconsider speculative sampling and derive two key observations. Firstly, autoregression at the feature (second-to-top-layer)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Yuhui Li , Fangyun Wei , Chao Zhang , Hongyang Zhang

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly relied upon to solve complex mathematical word problems. However, being susceptible to hallucination, they may generate inaccurate results when presented with unanswerable questions, raising…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Asir Saadat , Tasmia Binte Sogir , Md Taukir Azam Chowdhury , Syem Aziz

Large language models are increasingly integrated into decision-making in areas such as healthcare, law, finance, engineering, and government. Yet they share a critical limitation: they produce fluent outputs even when their internal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Rikard Rosenbacke , Carl Rosenbacke , Victor Rosenbacke , Martin McKee

Uncertainty quantification approaches have been more critical in large language models (LLMs), particularly high-risk applications requiring reliable outputs. However, traditional methods for uncertainty quantification, such as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Ferhat Ozgur Catak , Murat Kuzlu

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in applications requiring factual accuracy, yet their outputs often contain hallucinated responses. While fact-checking can mitigate these errors, existing methods typically retrieve…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-07 Haoran Wang , Maryam Khalid , Qiong Wu , Jian Gao , Cheng Cao

Large language models (LLMs) often produce confident but incorrect answers in settings where abstention would be safer. Standard evaluation protocols, however, require a response and do not account for how confidence should guide decisions…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Sean Wu , Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Edward Phillips , Boyan Gao , Anshul Thakur , David A. Clifton

With the growing adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) for open-ended tasks, accurately assessing epistemic uncertainty, which reflects a model's lack of knowledge, has become crucial to ensuring reliable outcomes. However, quantifying…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Xinyi Liu , Weiguang Wang , Hangfeng He

Large Language Models (LLMs) often produce hallucinated or unverifiable content, undermining their reliability in factual domains. This work investigates Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) as a training paradigm that…

This study investigates uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs) for medical applications, emphasizing both technical innovations and philosophical implications. As LLMs become integral to clinical decision-making,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Zahra Atf , Seyed Amir Ahmad Safavi-Naini , Peter R. Lewis , Aref Mahjoubfar , Nariman Naderi , Thomas R. Savage , Ali Soroush

Despite recent progress in systematic evaluation frameworks, benchmarking the uncertainty of large language models (LLMs) remains a highly challenging task. Existing methods for benchmarking the uncertainty of LLMs face three key…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Xunzhi Wang , Zhuowei Zhang , Gaonan Chen , Qiongyu Li , Bitong Luo , Zhixin Han , Haotian Wang , Zhiyu li , Hang Gao , Mengting Hu

Large Language Models are known to capture real-world knowledge, allowing them to excel in many downstream tasks. Despite recent advances, these models are still prone to what are commonly known as hallucinations, causing them to emit…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Roi Cohen , Omri Fahn , Gerard de Melo