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Conformal Prediction (CP) algorithms estimate the uncertainty of a prediction model by calibrating its outputs on labeled data. The same calibration scheme usually applies to any model and data without modifications. The obtained prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-27 Nicolo Colombo

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions of machine learning models that are valid with high probability. However, applying conformal prediction to time series data leads to conservative prediction…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-01-10 Matthew Cleaveland , Insup Lee , George J. Pappas , Lars Lindemann

Spectral clustering refers to a family of unsupervised learning algorithms that compute a spectral embedding of the original data based on the eigenvectors of a similarity graph. This non-linear transformation of the data is both the key of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-30 Nicolas Tremblay , Andreas Loukas

Conformal prediction uses past experience to determine precise levels of confidence in new predictions. Given an error probability $\epsilon$, together with a method that makes a prediction $\hat{y}$ of a label $y$, it produces a set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-23 Glenn Shafer , Vladimir Vovk

Graph Neural Networks have achieved remarkable accuracy in semi-supervised node classification tasks. However, these results lack reliable uncertainty estimates. Conformal prediction methods provide a theoretical guarantee for node…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Jianqing Song , Jianguo Huang , Wenyu Jiang , Baoming Zhang , Shuangjie Li , Chongjun Wang

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification that converts a pretrained model's point prediction into a prediction set, with the set size reflecting the model's confidence. Although existing CP methods are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-18 Shuqi Liu , Jianguo Huang , Luke Ong

This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Yanfei Zhou , Matteo Sesia

Selecting a coherent sequence or subset of elements is a fundamental problem in structured prediction, arising in tasks such as detection, trajectory forecasting, and representative subset selection. In many such settings, the target is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Noam Mizrachi , Nadav Har-Tuv , Shai Shalev-Shwartz

The rapid growth of renewable energy penetration has intensified the need for reliable probabilistic forecasts to support grid operations at aggregated (fleet or system) levels. In practice, however, system operators often lack access to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Alireza Moradi , Mathieu Tanneau , Reza Zandehshahvar , Pascal Van Hentenryck

Operating System (OS) fingerprinting is critical for network security, but conventional methods do not provide formal uncertainty quantification mechanisms. Conformal Prediction (CP) could be directly wrapped around existing methods to…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Rubén Pérez-Jove , Osvaldo Simeone , Alejandro Pazos , Jose Vázquez-Naya

Local class imbalance and data heterogeneity across clients often trap prototype-based federated contrastive learning in a prototype bias loop: biased local prototypes induced by imbalanced data are aggregated into biased global prototypes,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Tian-Shuang Wu , Shen-Huan Lyu , Ning Chen , Yi-Xiao He , Bing Tang , Baoliu Ye , Qingfu Zhang

Mixture model-based frameworks are very popular for statistical inference in clustering. While convenient for producing probabilistic estimates of cluster assignments and uncertainty, they are prone to misspecification, which can lead to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-15 Yu Zheng , Leo L. Duan , Arkaprava Roy

Conformal Prediction is a framework that produces prediction intervals based on the output from a machine learning algorithm. In this paper we explore the case when training data is made up of multiple parts available in different sources…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-16 Ola Spjuth , Robin Carrión Brännström , Lars Carlsson , Niharika Gauraha

Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes domains such as scientific discovery and healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability, an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Siddhartha Laghuvarapu , Rohan Deb , Jimeng Sun

Conformal prediction methodologies have significantly advanced the quantification of uncertainties in predictive models. Yet, the construction of confidence regions for model parameters presents a notable challenge, often necessitating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-30 Charles Guille-Escuret , Eugene Ndiaye

Conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, reliably provides valid predictive inference for black-box models. CP constructs prediction sets that contain the true output with a specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Xiaofan Zhou , Baiting Chen , Yu Gui , Lu Cheng

Split conformal prediction (CP) is arguably the most popular CP method for uncertainty quantification, enjoying both academic interest and widespread deployment. However, the original theoretical analysis of split CP makes the crucial…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-26 Roberto I. Oliveira , Paulo Orenstein , Thiago Ramos , João Vitor Romano

Distribution-free uncertainty estimation for ensemble methods is increasingly desirable due to the widening deployment of multi-modal black-box predictive models. Conformal prediction is one approach that avoids such distributional…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Eduardo Ochoa Rivera , Yash Patel , Ambuj Tewari

Clustering algorithms have significantly improved along with Deep Neural Networks which provide effective representation of data. Existing methods are built upon deep autoencoder and self-training process that leverages the distribution of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-17 Xin Ma , Won Hwa Kim

We investigate the integration of Conformal Prediction (CP) with supervised learning on deterministically encrypted data, aiming to bridge the gap between rigorous uncertainty quantification and privacy-preserving machine learning. Using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Alexander David Balinsky , Dominik Krzeminski , Alexander Balinsky