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Practitioners often face the challenge of deploying prediction models in new environments with shifted distributions of covariates and responses. With observational data, such shifts are often driven by unobserved confounding, and can in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Kulunu Dharmakeerthi , YoonHaeng Hur , Tengyuan Liang

We study covariate shift in the context of nonparametric regression. We introduce a new measure of distribution mismatch between the source and target distributions that is based on the integrated ratio of probabilities of balls at a given…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-08 Reese Pathak , Cong Ma , Martin J. Wainwright

Fine-Grained Change Detection and Regression Analysis are essential in many applications of ArtificialIntelligence. In practice, this task is often challenging owing to the lack of reliable ground truth information andcomplexity arising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-12 Niall O' Mahony , Sean Campbell , Lenka Krpalkova , Joseph Walsh , Daniel Riordan

Non-linear latent variable models have become increasingly popular in a variety of applications. However, there has been little study on theoretical properties of these models. In this article, we study rates of posterior contraction in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-27 Shuang Zhou , Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya , David Dunson

Deep neural networks often produce overconfident predictions, undermining their reliability in safety-critical applications. This miscalibration is further exacerbated under distribution shift, where test data deviates from the training…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-28 Yilin Zhang , Cai Xu , You Wu , Ziyu Guan , Wei Zhao

As machine learning models are increasingly deployed in dynamic environments, it becomes paramount to assess and quantify uncertainties associated with distribution shifts. A distribution shift occurs when the underlying data-generating…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-08 Jiawei Ge , Debarghya Mukherjee , Jianqing Fan

There has been a significant recent surge in deep neural network (DNN) techniques. Most of the existing DNN techniques have restricted model formats/assumptions. To overcome their limitations, we propose the nonparametric transformation…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-28 Tong Wang , Shunqin Zhang , Sanguo Zhang , Jian Huang , Shuangge Ma

In a large class of statistical inverse problems it is necessary to suppose that the transformation that is inverted is known. Although, in many applications, it is unrealistic to make this assumption, the problem is often insoluble without…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Aurore Delaigle , Peter Hall , Alexander Meister

In this paper, we focus on fully connected deep neural networks utilizing the Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) activation function for nonparametric estimation. We derive non-asymptotic bounds that lead to convergence rates, addressing both…

The effectiveness of non-parametric, kernel-based methods for function estimation comes at the price of high computational complexity, which hinders their applicability in adaptive, model-based control. Motivated by approximation techniques…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-17 Anna Scampicchio , Elena Arcari , Melanie N. Zeilinger

Transfer learning uses a data model, trained to make predictions or inferences on data from one population, to make reliable predictions or inferences on data from another population. Most existing transfer learning approaches are based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-01 Jimmy Hickey , Jonathan P. Williams , Emily C. Hector

Training networks to perform metric relocalization traditionally requires accurate image correspondences. In practice, these are obtained by restricting domain coverage, employing additional sensors, or capturing large multi-view datasets.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-11-03 Mike Kasper , Fernando Nobre , Christoffer Heckman , Nima Keivan

Information from related source studies can often enhance the findings of a target study. However, the distribution shift between target and source studies can severely impact the efficiency of knowledge transfer. In the high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-26 Ruiqi Bai , Yijiao Zhang , Hanbo Yang , Zhongyi Zhu

Deep learning has exhibited remarkable results across diverse areas. To understand its success, substantial research has been directed towards its theoretical foundations. Nevertheless, the majority of these studies examine how well deep…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-11 Hao Liu , Jiahui Cheng , Wenjing Liao

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become powerful tools for modeling complex data structures through sequentially integrating simple functions in each hidden layer. In survival analysis, recent advances of DNNs primarily focus on enhancing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-26 Changhui Yuan , Shishun Zhao , Shuwei Li , Xinyuan Song , Zhao Chen

In this work, we propose a novel deep bootstrap framework for nonparametric regression based on conditional diffusion models. Specifically, we construct a conditional diffusion model to learn the distribution of the response variable given…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-12 Jinyuan Chang , Yuling Jiao , Lican Kang , Junjie Shi

We study the fundamental problem of transfer learning where a learning algorithm collects data from some source distribution $P$ but needs to perform well with respect to a different target distribution $Q$. A standard change of measure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Alkis Kalavasis , Ilias Zadik , Manolis Zampetakis

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-02 Sunay Joshi , Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Edgar Dobriban , Hamed Hassani

We present a novel instance-based approach to handle regression tasks in the context of supervised domain adaptation under an assumption of covariate shift. The approach developed in this paper is based on the assumption that the task on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-16 Antoine de Mathelin , Guillaume Richard , Francois Deheeger , Mathilde Mougeot , Nicolas Vayatis

When machine learning models are deployed on a test distribution different from the training distribution, they can perform poorly, but overestimate their performance. In this work, we aim to better estimate a model's performance under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-08 Ching-Yao Chuang , Antonio Torralba , Stefanie Jegelka