Related papers: Distributional Conformal Prediction for Markov Pro…

Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP…

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a powerful method for complex system regulation, but its reliance on an accurate model poses many limitations in real-world applications. Data-driven predictive control (DDPC) aims at overcoming this…

We discuss a concept denoted as Conformal Prediction (CP) in this paper. While initially stemming from the world of machine learning, it was never applied or analyzed in the context of short-term electricity price forecasting. Therefore, we…

We revisit closed-loop performance guarantees for Model Predictive Control in the deterministic and stochastic cases, which extend to novel performance results applicable to receding horizon control of Partially Observable Markov Decision…

We propose a unified framework that extends the inference methods for classical hidden Markov models to continuous settings, where both the hidden states and observations occur in continuous time. Two different settings are analyzed: hidden…

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are stochastic optimization problems that model situations where a decision maker controls a system based on its state. Partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are generalizations of MDPs where…

We study the problem of conditional predictive inference on multiple outcomes missing at random (MAR) -- or equivalently, under covariate shift. While the weighted conformal prediction offers a tool for inference under covariate shift with…

The sample-based Gibbs sampler has been the dominant method for approximating joint distribution from a collection of compatible full-conditional distributions. However for conditionally specified model, mixtures of incompatible full and…

In adaptive systems, predictors are used to anticipate changes in the systems state or behavior that may require system adaption, e.g., changing its configuration or adjusting resource allocation. Therefore, the quality of predictors is…

A Neural Process (NP) estimates a stochastic process implicitly defined with neural networks given a stream of data, rather than pre-specifying priors already known, such as Gaussian processes. An ideal NP would learn everything from data…

In demographic literature, forecast uncertainty is often quantified with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from drawbacks, namely model misspecification, selection effect, and lack of finite-sample…

For nonlinear multi-agent systems with high relative degrees, achieving formation control and obstacle avoidance in a distributed manner remains a significant challenge. To address this issue, we propose a novel distributed safety-critical…

This paper proposes an iterative distributionally robust model predictive control (MPC) scheme to solve a risk-constrained infinite-horizon optimal control problem. In each iteration, the algorithm generates a trajectory from the starting…

Regularization of control policies using entropy can be instrumental in adjusting predictability of real-world systems. Applications benefiting from such approaches range from, e.g., cybersecurity, which aims at maximal unpredictability, to…

In this paper, we present a Distributionally Robust Markov Decision Process (DRMDP) approach for addressing the dynamic epidemic control problem. The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is widely used to represent the…

This paper presents a time-optimal Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme for linear discrete-time systems subject to multiplicative uncertainties represented by interval matrices. To render the uncertainty propagation computationally…

In this paper we consider parameter estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes. In particular, we focus on data that are observed at low frequency and methodology that can estimate parameters with uncertainty quantification.…

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the \textit{sequential predictive conformal inference} (\texttt{SPCI}). We specifically account for the nature that time…

This paper is motivated by addressing open questions in distributionally robust chance-constrained programs (DRCCP) using the popular Wasserstein ambiguity sets. Specifically, the computational techniques for those programs typically place…

We consider the problem of approximating the reachability probabilities in Markov decision processes (MDP) with uncountable (continuous) state and action spaces. While there are algorithms that, for special classes of such MDP, provide a…