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We propose a stochastic model for evolution. Births and deaths of species occur with constant probabilities. Each new species is associated with a fitness sampled from the uniform distribution on [0,1]. Every time there is a death event…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-11-09 Herve Guiol , Fabio P. Machado , Rinaldo B. Schinazi

Under the effect of strong genetic drift, it is highly probable to observe gene fixation or gene loss in a population, shown by infinite peaks on a coherently constructed potential energy landscape. It is then important to ask what such…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-15 Song Xu , Shuyun Jiao , Pengyao Jiang , Ping Ao

In this paper we study a particular class of Piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP's) which are semi-stochastic catastrophe versions of deterministic population growth models. In between successive jumps the process follows a flow…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-09 Branda Goncalves , Thierry Huillet , Eva Löcherbach

We consider the setting of either a general non-local branching particle process or a general non-local superprocess, in both cases, with and without immigration. Under the assumption that the mean semigroup has a Perron-Frobenious type…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-09 Emma Horton , Andreas E. Kyprianou , Pedro Martín-Chávez , Ellen Powell , Victor Rivero

In this paper we study the iterated birth process of which we examine the first-passage time distributions and the hitting probabilities. Furthermore, linear birth processes, linear and sublinear death processes at Poisson times are…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-23 L. Beghin , E. Orsingher

I study a population model in which the reproduction rate lambda is inherited with mutation, favoring fast reproducers in the short term, but conflicting with a process that eliminates agglomerations of individuals. The model is a variant…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-06-02 Ronald Dickman

In the long run, the eventual extinction of any biological population is an inevitable outcome. While extensive research has focused on the average time it takes for a population to go extinct under various circumstances, there has been…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-07-18 David Kessler , Nadav M. Shnerb

A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with $n$ current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate $\lambda_n$ and a particle…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-10-11 Forrest W. Crawford , Marc A. Suchard

In this paper we consider two branching processes living in a joint random environment. Assuming that both processes are critical we address the following question: What is the probability that both populations survive up to a large time…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-27 Nikita Elizarov , Vitali Wachtel

The fitness of a biological strategy is typically measured by its expected reproductive rate, the first moment of its offspring distribution. However, strategies with high expected rates can also have high probabilities of extinction. A…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-05-17 Sterling Sawaya , Steffen Klaere

We develop a likelihood-based inference for finite-state birth-death processes with composite birth rates, in which multiple distinct mechanisms contribute additively to the total birth intensity. Our main motivating example is an SIS…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-23 Marko Lalovic , Nicos Georgiou , Istvan Z. Kiss

We study continuous-time birth-death type processes, where individuals have independent and identically distributed lifetimes, according to a random variable Q, with E[Q]=1, and where the birth rate if the population is currently in state…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-08-05 Frank Ball , Tom Britton , Peter Neal

We consider a bilateral birth-death process characterized by a constant transition rate $\lambda$ from even states and a possibly different transition rate $\mu$ from odd states. We determine the probability generating functions of the even…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-23 Antonio Di Crescenzo , Antonella Iuliano , Barbara Martinucci

We are interested in modelling Darwinian evolution, resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions. Our models are rooted in the microscopic, stochastic description of a population…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Nicolas Champagnat , Régis Ferrière , Sylvie Méléard

We establish recurrence and transience criteria for critical branching processes in random environment with immigration. These results are then applied to discuss recurrence and transience of a recurrent random walk in a random environment…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-24 Elisabeth Bauernschubert

This paper deals into the long-term behavior of subordinated critical branching processes with migration. We focus on scenarios where emigration is the dominant factor and introduce additional randomness in timing through a subordination…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-16 George P. Yanev

Immigration can rescue local populations from extinction, helping to stabilise a metapopulation. Local population dynamics is important for determining the strength of this rescue effect, but the mechanistic link between local demographic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-02-24 A. Eriksson , F. Elias Wolff , B. Mehlig , A. Manica

We consider a continuous-time symmetric branching random walk on multidimensional lattices with immigration and infinite number of initial particles. We assume that at every lattice point a process of birth and death of particles is…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-11 Yu. Makarova , D. Han , S. Molchanov , E. Yarovaya

We study a dynamic model of ecosystems where immigration plays an essential role both in assembling the species community and in mantaining its biodiversity. This framework is particularly relevant for insular ecosystems. Population…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2007-05-23 U. Bastolla , M. Laessig , S. Manrubia , A. Valleriani

We study the escape behavior of a lamb to safe haven pursued by a hungry lion. Identifying the system with a pair of vicious Brownian walkers we evaluate the probability density function for the vicious pair and from there we estimate the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-05-03 R. K. Singh , T. Sandev , Sadhana Singh
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