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This paper provides an overview and introduction to the development of non-ergodic ground-motion models, GMMs. It is intended for a reader who is familiar with the standard approach for developing ergodic GMMs. It starts with a brief…

A new approach for creating a non-ergodic $PSA$ ground-motion model (GMM) is presented which account for the magnitude dependence of the non-ergodic effects. In this approach, the average $PSA$ scaling is controlled by an ergodic $PSA$ GMM,…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-21 Grigorios Lavrentiadis , Norman A. Abrahamson

A new non-ergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for effective amplitude spectral ($EAS$) values for California is presented in this study. $EAS$, which is defined in Goulet et al. (2018), is a smoothed rotation-independent Fourier amplitude…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-25 Grigorios Lavrentiadis , Norman A. Abrahamson , Nicolas M. Kuehn

Recent developments in non-ergodic ground-motion models (GMMs) explicitly model systematic spatial variations in source, site, and path effects, reducing standard deviation to 30-40% of ergodic models and enabling more accurate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-24 Maxime Lacour , Pu Ren , Rie Nakata , Nori Nakata , Michael Mahoney

Ground motion models (GMMs) are critical for seismic risk mitigation and infrastructure design. Machine learning (ML) is increasingly applied to GMM development due to expanding strong motion databases. However, existing ML-based GMMs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Vemula Sreenath , Filippo Gatti , Pierre Jehel

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are perhaps the most commonly used class of models in statistical applications. Nevertheless, in areas ranging from longitudinal studies in biostatistics to geostatistics, it is easy to find datasets that…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-22 Rafael Cabral , David Bolin , Håvard Rue

Ground-motion model (GMM) is the basis of many earthquake engineering studies. In this study, a novel physics-informed symbolic learner (PISL) method based on the Nest Generation Attenuation-West2 database is proposed to automatically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-27 Su Chen , Xianwei Liu , Lei Fu , Suyang Wang , Bin Zhang , Xiaojun Li

Predicting high-fidelity ground motions for future earthquakes is crucial for seismic hazard assessment and infrastructure resilience. Conventional empirical simulations suffer from sparse sensor distribution and geographically localized…

Quantifying predictive uncertainty is essential for real world machine learning applications, especially in scenarios requiring reliable and interpretable predictions. Many common parametric approaches rely on neural networks to estimate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-31 Yang Yang , Chunlin Ji , Haoyang Li , Ke Deng

Generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs) are widely used to analyze grouped and hierarchical data. In a GLMM, each response is assumed to follow an exponential-family distribution where the natural parameter is given by a linear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-14 Yuli Slavutsky , Sebastian Salazar , David M. Blei

Estimates of seismic wave speeds in the Earth (seismic velocity models) are key input parameters to earthquake simulations for ground motion prediction. Owing to the non-uniqueness of the seismic inverse problem, typically many velocity…

Multi-model ensemble analysis integrates information from multiple climate models into a unified projection. However, existing integration approaches based on model averaging can dilute fine-scale spatial information and incur bias from…

Applications · Statistics 2023-04-12 Trevor Harris , Bo Li , Ryan Sriver

In this study, we address the challenge of constructing continuous three-dimensional (3D) models that accurately represent uncertain surfaces, derived from noisy and incomplete LiDAR scanning data. Building upon our prior work, which…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-10-27 Qianqian Zou , Monika Sester

The Gaussian process state-space model (GPSSM) has garnered considerable attention over the past decade. However, the standard GP with a preliminary kernel, such as the squared exponential kernel or Mat\'{e}rn kernel, that is commonly used…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-07 Zhid Lin , Feng Yin , Juan Maroñas

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-02-13 Ziming Chen , L. Ruby Leung , Wenyu Zhou , Jian Lu , Sandro W. Lubis , Ye Liu , Chuan-Chieh Chang , Bryce E. Harrop , Ya Wang , Mingshi Yang , Gan Zhang , Yun Qian

Gaussian Processes (GPs) have been widely used in machine learning to model distributions over functions, with applications including multi-modal regression, time-series prediction, and few-shot learning. GPs are particularly useful in the…

Nonstationary and non-Gaussian spatial data are common in various fields, including ecology (e.g., counts of animal species), epidemiology (e.g., disease incidence counts in susceptible regions), and environmental science (e.g.,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-01 Remy MacDonald , Benjamin Seiyon Lee

This paper proposes an online learning method of Gaussian process state-space model (GP-SSM). GP-SSM is a probabilistic representation learning scheme that represents unknown state transition and/or measurement models as Gaussian processes…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Soon-Seo Park , Young-Jin Park , Youngjae Min , Han-Lim Choi

We develop a site-specific ground-motion model (GMM) for crustal earthquakes in Japan that can directly model the probability distribution of ground motion acceleration time histories based on generative adversarial networks (GANs). The…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-12-01 Yuma Matsumoto , Taro Yaoyama , Sangwon Lee , Takenori Hida , Tatsuya Itoi

We present a data-driven framework for ground-motion synthesis that generates three-component acceleration time histories conditioned on moment magnitude, rupture distance , time-average shear-wave velocity at the top $30m$ ($V_{S30}$), and…

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