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Related papers: Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models

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Multiple Choice Question (MCQ) tests are among the most used methods for evaluating large language models (LLMs). Besides checking the correctness of the selected answer, evaluations often consider the model's confidence through the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Tairan Fu , Javier Conde , Gonzalo Martínez , María Grandury , Pedro Reviriego

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains such as science, law, and healthcare, where accurate expressions of uncertainty are essential for reliability and trust. However, current LLMs are often observed…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-26 Yibo Li , Miao Xiong , Jiaying Wu , Bryan Hooi

We investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can predict whether they will succeed on a given task and whether their predictions improve as they progress through multi-step tasks. We also investigate whether LLMs can learn from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Casey O. Barkan , Sid Black , Oliver Sourbut

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used as automated judges, where practical value depends on both accuracy and trustworthy, risk-aware judgments. Existing approaches predominantly focus on accuracy, overlooking the necessity of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Zailong Tian , Zhuoheng Han , Yanzhe Chen , Haozhe Xu , Xi Yang , Richeng Xuan , Houfeng Wang , Lizi Liao

Large language models (LLMs) often produce confident yet incorrect answers, which can lead to risky failures in real-world applications. We study whether post-training can make a model's self-assessment explicit: when the model is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Junyu Guo , Shangding Gu , Ming Jin , Costas Spanos , Javad Lavaei

Knowledge probing quantifies how much relational knowledge a language model (LM) has acquired during pre-training. Existing knowledge probes evaluate model capabilities through metrics like prediction accuracy and precision. Such…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Christopher Kissling , Elena Merdjanovska , Alan Akbik

One of the key technologies for the success of Large Language Models (LLMs) is preference alignment. However, a notable side effect of preference alignment is poor calibration: while the pre-trained models are typically well-calibrated,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Jiancong Xiao , Bojian Hou , Zhanliang Wang , Ruochen Jin , Qi Long , Weijie J. Su , Li Shen

We posit that large language models (LLMs) should be capable of expressing their intrinsic uncertainty in natural language. For example, if the LLM is equally likely to output two contradicting answers to the same question, then its…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Gal Yona , Roee Aharoni , Mor Geva

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success across a wide range of natural language tasks, but often exhibit overconfidence and generate plausible yet incorrect answers. This overconfidence, especially in models undergone…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-24 Zeguan Xiao , Diyang Dou , Boya Xiong , Yun Chen , Guanhua Chen

Recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) have opened up greater opportunities to enable fine-tuned large language models (LLMs) to behave as more powerful interactive agents through improved instruction-following ability.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Jerry Huang , Peng Lu , Qiuhao Zeng

Fine-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) often demonstrate poor calibration, with their confidence scores misaligned with actual performance. While calibration has been extensively studied in models trained from scratch, the impact of LLMs'…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Ziming Wang , Zeyu Shi , Haoyi Zhou , Shiqi Gao , Qingyun Sun , Jianxin Li

Large Language Models (LLMs) represent an advanced evolution of earlier, simpler language models. They boast enhanced abilities to handle complex language patterns and generate coherent text, images, audios, and videos. Furthermore, they…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2024-03-01 Jun Huang , Jiawei Zhang , Qi Wang , Weihong Han , Yanchun Zhang

Empowered by vast internal knowledge reservoir, the new generation of large language models (LLMs) demonstrate untapped potential to tackle medical tasks. However, there is insufficient effort made towards summoning up a synergic effect…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Kexin Shang , Chia-Hsuan Chang , Christopher C. Yang

The tool-use ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) has a profound impact on a wide range of industrial applications. However, LLMs' self-control and calibration capability in appropriately using tools remains understudied. The problem is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Yuanhao Shen , Xiaodan Zhu , Lei Chen

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes domains, accurately assessing their confidence is crucial. Humans typically express confidence through epistemic markers (e.g., "fairly confident") instead of numerical…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Jiayu Liu , Qing Zong , Weiqi Wang , Yangqiu Song

Can LLMs accurately adjust their confidence when facing opposition? Building on previous studies measuring calibration on static fact-based question-answering tasks, we evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) in a dynamic, adversarial debate…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Pradyumna Shyama Prasad , Minh Nhat Nguyen

For speech classification tasks, deep learning models often achieve high accuracy but exhibit shortcomings in calibration, manifesting as classifiers exhibiting overconfidence. The significance of calibration lies in its critical role in…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-27 Yaqian Hao , Chenguang Hu , Yingying Gao , Shilei Zhang , Junlan Feng

Recent advances in Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have predominantly focused on enhancing visual perception to improve accuracy. However, a critical question remains unexplored: Do models know when they do not know? Through a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Yuetian Du , Yucheng Wang , Rongyu Zhang , Zhijie Xu , Boyu Yang , Ming Kong , Jie Liu , Qiang Zhu

Large language models (LLMs) are capable of generating plausible explanations of how they arrived at an answer to a question. However, these explanations can misrepresent the model's "reasoning" process, i.e., they can be unfaithful. This,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Katie Matton , Robert Osazuwa Ness , John Guttag , Emre Kıcıman

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable performance in semantic understanding and generation, yet accurately assessing their output reliability remains a significant challenge. While numerous studies have explored calibration…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Liangru Xie , Hui Liu , Jingying Zeng , Xianfeng Tang , Yan Han , Chen Luo , Jing Huang , Zhen Li , Suhang Wang , Qi He