Related papers: Parametric Prior Mapping Framework for Non-station…

Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) are widely used to discover latent structure in data, but their success hinges on selecting an appropriate model design. In practice, model specification is difficult and often requires iterative…

The non-stationary nature of real-world Multivariate Time Series (MTS) data presents forecasting models with a formidable challenge of the time-variant distribution of time series, referred to as distribution shift. Existing studies on the…

Time series generation is critical for a wide range of applications, which greatly supports downstream analytical and decision-making tasks. However, the inherent temporal heterogeneous induced by localized perturbations present significant…

We propose an approach to simulating trajectories of multiple interacting agents (road users) based on transformers and probabilistic graphical models (PGMs), and apply it to the Waymo SimAgents challenge. The transformer baseline is based…

This paper proposes Mode-Aware Probabilistic Scheduling (MAPS), a novel adaptive control framework tailored for DC motor systems experiencing varying friction. MAPS uniquely integrates an Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) estimator with a…

Probabilistic forecasting consists in predicting a distribution of possible future outcomes. In this paper, we address this problem for non-stationary time series, which is very challenging yet crucially important. We introduce the STRIPE…

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's…

A fundamental problem in modern supervised learning is computing reliable conditional prediction intervals in high-dimensional settings: existing methods often rely on restrictive modelling assumptions, do not scale as predictor dimension…

Time series forecasting is crucial for many fields, such as disaster warning, weather prediction, and energy consumption. The Transformer-based models are considered to have revolutionized the field of sequence modeling. However, the…

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic physics-guided framework, termed Physics-guided Deep Markov Model (PgDMM). The framework targets the inference of the characteristics and latent structure of nonlinear dynamical systems from…

The goal of system identification is to learn about underlying physics dynamics behind the time-series data. To model the probabilistic and nonparametric dynamics model, Gaussian process (GP) have been widely used; GP can estimate the…

In many domains, the previous decade was characterized by increasing data volumes and growing complexity of computational workloads, creating new demands for highly data-parallel computing in distributed systems. Effective operation of…

Software systems are complex, and behavioral comprehension with the increasing amount of AI components challenges traditional testing and maintenance strategies.The lack of tools and methodologies for behavioral software comprehension…

Modeling event sequences of multiple event types with marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) provides a principled way to uncover governing dynamical rules and predict future events. Current neural network approaches to MTPP inference rely…

In this paper, we introduce a nonparametric end-to-end method for probabilistic forecasting of distributed renewable generation outputs while including missing data imputation. Firstly, we employ a nonparametric probabilistic forecast model…

Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting plays a vital role in a wide range of applications. Recently, Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) have become increasingly popular MTS forecasting methods. STGNNs jointly model the…

Given (small amounts of) time-series' data from a high-dimensional, fine-grained, multiscale dynamical system, we propose a generative framework for learning an effective, lower-dimensional, coarse-grained dynamical model that is predictive…

We introduce a new approach to prediction in graphical models with latent-shift adaptation, i.e., where source and target environments differ in the distribution of an unobserved confounding latent variable. Previous work has shown that as…

This paper presents non-parametric baseline models for time series forecasting. Unlike classical forecasting models, the proposed approach does not assume any parametric form for the predictive distribution and instead generates predictions…

Forecasting the behaviour of complex dynamical systems such as interconnected sensor networks characterized by high-dimensional multivariate time series(MTS) is of paramount importance for making informed decisions and planning for the…