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Unlike traditional statistical methods, Conformal Prediction (CP) allows for the determination of valid and accurate confidence levels associated with individual predictions based only on exchangeability of the data. We here introduce a new…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-05-31 Marcos López-De-Castro , Alberto García-Galindo , Rubén Armañanzas

In clinical applications, the utility of segmentation models is often based on the accuracy of derived downstream metrics such as organ size, rather than by the pixel-level accuracy of the segmentation masks themselves. Thus, uncertainty…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-03 Matt Y. Cheung , Ashok Veeraraghavan , Guha Balakrishnan

Large language models have achieved impressive performance across diverse tasks. However, their tendency to produce overconfident and factually incorrect outputs, known as hallucinations, poses risks in real world applications. Conformal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-08 Zhexiao Lin , Yuanyuan Li , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Gao , Michael von Gablenz

This study aims to address the pervasive challenge of quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) without logit-access. Conformal Prediction (CP), known for its model-agnostic and distribution-free features, is a desired…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-05 Jiayuan Su , Jing Luo , Hongwei Wang , Lu Cheng

Despite remarkable progress in recent years, Vision Language Models (VLMs) remain prone to overconfidence and hallucinations on tasks such as Visual Question Answering (VQA) and Visual Reasoning. Bayesian methods can potentially improve…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Tobias Jan Wieczorek , Nathalie Daun , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Marcus Rohrbach

Continual learning (CL) aims to help deep neural networks learn new knowledge while retaining what has been learned. Owing to their powerful generalizability, pre-trained vision-language models such as Contrastive Language-Image…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Saurav Jha , Dong Gong , Lina Yao

Conformal prediction (CP) and its extension, conformal risk control (CRC), are established frameworks for quantifying uncertainty in supervised machine learning through formal guarantees. However, recent breakthroughs in artificial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Gabriel Loaiza-Ganem , Kevin Zhang , Wei Cui , Marc T. Law , Kin Kwan Leung

Safe deployment of deep neural networks in high-stake real-world applications requires theoretically sound uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a principled framework for uncertainty quantification of deep models in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Janardhan Rao Doppa

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for Natural Language Generation (NLG) is crucial for assessing the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs), as it reveals confidence in predictions, identifies failure modes, and gauges output…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-09 Sean Wang , Yicheng Jiang , Yuxin Tang , Lu Cheng , Hanjie Chen

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a comprehensive framework to produce statistically rigorous uncertainty sets for black-box machine learning models. To further improve the efficiency of CP, conformal correction is proposed to fine-tune or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-03 Senrong Xu , Tianyu Wang , Zenan Li , Yuan Yao , Taolue Chen , Feng Xu , Xiaoxing Ma

Conformal prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method to construct reliable prediction intervals that has gained significant attention in recent years. Despite its success and various proposed extensions, a significant practical feature…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Louis Allain , Sébastien Da Veiga , Brian Staber

A probability forecast or probabilistic classifier is reliable or calibrated if the predicted probabilities are matched by ex post observed frequencies, as examined visually in reliability diagrams. The classical binning and counting…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-26 Timo Dimitriadis , Tilmann Gneiting , Alexander I. Jordan

Conformal prediction is emerging as a popular paradigm for providing rigorous uncertainty quantification in machine learning since it can be easily applied as a post-processing step to already trained models. In this paper, we extend…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Charles Lu , Yaodong Yu , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy , Michael I. Jordan , Ramesh Raskar

We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Shai Feldman , Stephen Bates , Yaniv Romano

Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Mintong Kang , Nezihe Merve Gürel , Linyi Li , Bo Li

Brittle optimization has been observed to adversely impact model likelihoods for regression and VAEs when simultaneously fitting neural network mappings from a (random) variable onto the mean and variance of a dependent Gaussian variable.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-02 Andrew Stirn , David A. Knowles

Conformal prediction (CP) was developed to provide finite-sample probabilistic prediction guarantees. While CP algorithms are a relatively general-purpose approach to uncertainty quantification, with finite-sample guarantees, they lack…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-08 Jonathan P Williams

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

Standard conformal prediction methods provide a marginal coverage guarantee, which means that for a random test point, the conformal prediction set contains the true label with a user-specified probability. In many classification problems,…

With the advancement of Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, high-precision indoor positioning has become essential for Location-Based Services (LBS) in complex indoor environments. Fingerprint-based localization is popular, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-06 Zhiyi Zhou , Hexin Peng , Hongyu Long