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The prediction and control of rare events is an important task in disciplines that range from physics and biology, to economics and social science. The Big Jump principle deals with a peculiar aspect of the mechanism that drives rare…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-02-27 Alessandro Vezzani , Eli Barkai , Raffaella Burioni

Numerical simulations of particle acceleration in magnetized turbulence have recently observed powerlaw spectra where pile-up distributions are rather expected. We interpret this as evidence for particle segregation based on acceleration…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2020-11-19 Martin Lemoine , Mikhail A. Malkov

We consider a Markov chain on $R^+$ with asymptotically zero drift and finite second moments of jumps which is positive recurrent. A power-like asymptotic behaviour of the invariant tail distribution is proven; such a heavy-tailed invariant…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-08-16 Denis Denisov , Dmitry Korshunov , Vitali Wachtel

We consider random walks on dynamical networks where edges appear and disappear during finite time intervals. The process is grounded on three independent stochastic processes determining the walker's waiting-time, the up-time and down-time…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-11-28 Julien Petit , Martin Gueuning , Timoteo Carletti , Ben Lauwens , Renaud Lambiotte

A step-reinforced random walk is a discrete-time non-Markovian process with long range memory. At each step, with a fixed probability p, the positively step-reinforced random walk repeats one of its preceding steps chosen uniformly at…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-28 Zhishui Hu , Yiting Zhang

Heavy-tailed distributions are found throughout many naturally occurring phenomena. We have reviewed the models of stochastic dynamics that lead to heavy-tailed distributions (and power law distributions, in particular) including the…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2011-05-09 Ph. Blanchard , T. Krueger , D. Volchenkov

The extremes of a univariate Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution and asymptotically linear behavior are known to exhibit a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. In this paper, we extend…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-04 Anja Janßen , Johan Segers

The big jump principle explains the emergence of extreme events for physical quantities modelled by a sum of independent and identically distributed random variables which are heavy-tailed. Extreme events are large values of the sum and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-11-10 Marc Höll , Eli Barkai

We study the dynamics of a deterministic walk confined in a narrow two-dimensional space randomly filled with point-like targets. At each step, the walker visits the nearest target not previously visited. Complex dynamics is observed at…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-13 Denis Boyer

We analyze time evolution of statistical distributions of citations to scientific papers published in one year. While these distributions can be fitted by a power-law dependence we find that they are nonstationary and the exponent of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-09-13 Michael Golosovsky

The aim of this paper is to investigate how the correlation properties of a stationary Markovian stochastic processes affect the First Passage Time distribution. First Passage Time issues are a classical topic in stochastic processes…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-03-31 S. Micciché

Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-06-24 Pablo Lopez Rios , Gareth J. Conduit

We consider a class of discrete-time random walks with directed unit steps on the integer line. The direction of the steps is reversed at the time instants of events in a discrete-time renewal process and is maintained at uneventful time…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-04 Thomas M. Michelitsch , Federico Polito , Alejandro P. Riascos

Motivated by the study of the time evolution of random dynamical systems arising in a vast variety of domains --- ranging from physics to ecology ---, we establish conditions for the occurrence of a non-trivial asymptotic behaviour for…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-15 Vladimir Belitsky , Mikhail Menshikov , Dimitri Petritis , Marina Vachkovskaia

Rare events in stochastic processes with heavy-tailed distributions are controlled by the big jump principle, which states that a rare large fluctuation is produced by a single event and not by an accumulation of coherent small deviations.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-03-13 Raffaella Burioni , Alessandro Vezzani

We consider weighted graphs satisfying sub-Gaussian estimate for the natural random walk. On such graphs, we study symmetric Markov chains with heavy tailed jumps. We establish a threshold behavior of such Markov chains when the index…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-03 Mathav Murugan , Laurent Saloff-Coste

As a model of trapping by biased motion in random structure, we study the time taken for a biased random walk to return to the root of a subcritical Galton-Watson tree. We do so for trees in which these biases are randomly chosen,…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-01-24 Gerard Ben Arous , Alan Hammond

Power-law distributions are typical macroscopic features occurring in almost all complex systems observable in nature. As a result, researchers in quantitative analyses must often generate random synthetic variates obeying power-law…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-11-11 Filippo Radicchi

We study a kind of new SDE that was arisen from the research on optimization in machine learning, we call it power-law dynamic because its stationary distribution cannot have sub-Gaussian tail and obeys power-law. We prove that the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-19 Wei Chen , Weitao Du , Zhi-Ming Ma , Qi Meng

We investigate the behavior of the length of the longest weakly increasing subsequences (weak LIS) of $n$-step random walks with nonzero integer increments $k = \pm 1, \pm 2, \dots$ given by a zero-mean, symmetric heavy tailed mass…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-01 José Ricardo G. Mendonça , Marcelo V. Freire