Related papers: From Arbitrage Removal to Density Extraction: A Mo…
We consider the asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) on a semi-infinite chain which is coupled at the end to a reservoir with a particle density that changes periodically in time. It is shown that the density profile assumes a…
We present a method for the arbitrage-free interpolation of plain-vanilla option prices and implied volatilities, which is based on a system of integral equations that relates terminal density and option prices. Using a discretization of…
Extracting the risk neutral density (RND) function from option prices is well defined in principle, but is very sensitive to errors in practice. For risk management, knowledge of the entire RND provides more information for Value-at-Risk…
We construct the term structure of the (forward-looking, US market) equity risk premium from SPX option chains. The method is "model-light". Risk-neutral probability densities are estimated by fitting $N$-component Gaussian mixture models…
We present a numerically efficient approach for learning a risk-neutral measure for paths of simulated spot and option prices up to a finite horizon under convex transaction costs and convex trading constraints. This approach can then be…
The estimation of a density profile from experimental data points is a challenging problem, usually tackled by plotting a histogram. Prior assumptions on the nature of the density, from its smoothness to the specification of its form, allow…
Modelling joint dynamics of liquid vanilla options is crucial for arbitrage-free pricing of illiquid derivatives and managing risks of option trade books. This paper develops a nonparametric model for the European options book respecting…
Option prices encode the market's collective outlook through implied density and implied volatility. An explicit link between implied density and implied volatility translates the risk-neutrality of the former into conditions on the latter…
The purpose of this work is to explore the role that arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary…
The purpose of this work is to explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a…
It is a market practice to express market-implied volatilities in some parametric form. The most popular parametrizations are based on or inspired by an underlying stochastic model, like the Heston model (SVI method) or the SABR model (SABR…
We propose a predictor-corrector adaptive method for the simulation of hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs) on networks under general uncertainty in parameters, initial conditions, or boundary conditions. The approach is based…
In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating the conditional risk-neutral density (RND) directly from a cross-section of put option bid-ask quotes. More precisely, we propose to view the RND recovery problem as an inverse problem.…
The computer-assisted modeling of re-entrant production lines, and, in particular, simulation scalability, is attracting a lot of attention due to the importance of such lines in semiconductor manufacturing. Re-entrant flows lead to…
We study the problem of finding probability densities that match given European call option prices. To allow prior information about such a density to be taken into account, we generalise the algorithm presented in Neri and Schneider (2011)…
This paper gives an arbitrage-free prediction for future prices of an arbitrary co-terminal set of options with a given maturity, based on the observed time series of these option prices. The statistical analysis of such a multi-dimensional…
Motivated by applications where impatience is pervasive and evaluation times are uncertain, we study a selection model where options may expire at an unknown point in time and evaluation times are stochastic. Initially, the decision-maker…
We consider call option prices in diffusion models close to expiry, in an asymptotic regime ("moderately out of the money") that interpolates between the well-studied cases of at-the-money options and out-of-the-money fixed-strike options.…
Implicit sampling is a weighted sampling method that is used in data assimilation, where one sequentially updates estimates of the state of a stochastic model based on a stream of noisy or incomplete data. Here we describe how to use…
American put options are among the most frequently traded single stock options, and their calibration is computationally challenging since no closed-form expression is available. Due to the higher flexibility in comparison to European…