Related papers: Mechanisms and Pathways of Extreme Events in Parti…
The theory of slow manifolds is an important tool in the study of deterministic dynamical systems, giving a practical method by which to reduce the number of relevant degrees of freedom in a model, thereby often resulting in a considerable…
Simulation based or dynamic probabilistic risk assessment methodologies were primarily developed for proving a more realistic and complete representation of complex systems accident response. Such simulation based methodologies have proven…
In this work, we report the emergence of extreme events in a damped and driven velocity-dependent mechanical system. We observe that the extreme events emerge at multiple points. We further notice that the extreme events occur symmetrically…
Atypical, rare trajectories of dynamical systems are important: they are often the paths for chemical reactions, the haven of (relative) stability of planetary systems, the rogue waves that are detected in oil platforms, the structures that…
Extreme events are emergent phenomena in multi-particle transport processes on complex networks. In practice, such events could range from power blackouts to call drops in cellular networks to traffic congestion on roads. All the earlier…
The dynamics of biological systems, from proteins to cells to organisms, is complex and stochastic. To decipher their physical laws, we need to bridge between experimental observations and theoretical modeling. Thanks to progress in…
We introduce a path sampling method for obtaining statistical properties of an arbitrary stochastic dynamics. The method works by decomposing a trajectory in time, estimating the probability of satisfying a progress constraint, modifying…
Stochastic dynamics is generated by a matrix of transition probabilities. Certain eigenvectors of this matrix provide observables, and when these are plotted in the appropriate multi-dimensional space the phases (in the sense of phase…
Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with…
Atmospheric blocking events are quasi-stationary high-pressure systems that disrupt the typical paths of polar and subtropical air currents, often producing prolonged extreme weather events such as summer heat waves or winter cold spells.…
Many systems in physics, engineering, and biology exhibit multiscale stochastic dynamics, where low-dimensional slow variables evolve under the influence of high-dimensional fast processes. In practice, observations are often limited to a…
In environmental science applications, extreme events frequently exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure, which is difficult to describe flexibly and estimate in a computationally efficient way using state-of-art parametric…
Understanding and predicting uncertain things are the central themes of scientific evolution. Human beings revolve around these fears of uncertainties concerning various aspects like a global pandemic, health, finances, to name but a few.…
Extreme events occur in many spatially extended dynamical systems, often devastatingly affecting human life which makes their reliable prediction and efficient prevention highly desirable. We study the prediction and prevention of extreme…
This article reviews the concepts and methods of variational path sampling. These methods allow computational studies of rare events in systems driven arbitrarily far from equilibrium. Based upon a statistical mechanics of trajectory space…
Are there hidden dynamical common patterns in the evolution of social and cultural history? While the growing availability of digitized social data invites us to answer this question, prevailing quantitative methods often rely on…
An extreme event is a sudden and violent change in the state of a nonlinear system. In fluid dynamics, extreme events can have adverse effects on the system's optimal design and operability, which calls for accurate methods for their…
Abrupt and rapid high-amplitude changes in a dynamical system's states known as extreme event appear in many processes occurring in nature, such as drastic climate patterns, rogue waves, or avalanches. These events often entail catastrophic…
A central problem in uncertainty quantification is how to characterize the impact that our incomplete knowledge about models has on the predictions we make from them. This question naturally lends itself to a probabilistic formulation, by…
We analyst in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems (see Phys. Rev. Lett . vol. 113, 264102 (2014)) by application to the Tangled Nature Model of evolutionary…