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Does continued scaling of large language models (LLMs) yield diminishing returns? In this work, we show that short-task benchmarks may give an illusion of slowing progress, as even marginal gains in single-step accuracy can compound into…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-16 Akshit Sinha , Arvindh Arun , Shashwat Goel , Steffen Staab , Jonas Geiping

In-Context Learning (ICL) allows Large Language Models (LLMs) to adapt to new tasks with just a few examples, but their predictions often suffer from systematic biases, leading to unstable performance in classification. While calibration…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-05 Korel Gundem , Juncheng Dong , Dennis Zhang , Vahid Tarokh , Zhengling Qi

Time-series forecasting in real-world applications such as finance and energy often faces challenges due to limited training data and complex, noisy temporal dynamics. Existing deep forecasting models typically supervise predictions using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Jiacheng You , Jingcheng Yang , Yuhang Xie , Zhongxuan Wu , Xiucheng Li , Feng Li , Pengjie Wang , Jian Xu , Bo Zheng , Xinyang Chen

With their increasing size, large language models (LLMs) are becoming increasingly good at language understanding tasks. But even with high performance on specific downstream task, LLMs fail at simple linguistic tests for negation or…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-12-01 Akshat Gupta

Whether language models can systematically generalize remains actively debated. Yet empirical performance is jointly shaped by multiple factors such as training data, training paradigms, and inference-time strategies, making failures…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Yao Tong , Jiayuan Ye , Anastasia Borovykh , Reza Shokri

Recent developments in large language models (LLMs) have led to their widespread usage for various tasks. The prevalence of LLMs in society implores the assurance on the reliability of their performance. In particular, risk-sensitive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-28 Catherine Yu-Chi Chen , Jingyan Shen , Zhun Deng , Lihua Lei

Large Language Models (LLMs) have successfully been applied to code generation tasks, raising the question of how well these models understand programming. Typical programming languages have invariances and equivariances in their semantics…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-26 Antonio Valerio Miceli-Barone , Fazl Barez , Ioannis Konstas , Shay B. Cohen

Many evaluations of Large Language Models (LLMs) target tasks that are inherently ill-defined, with unclear input and output spaces and ambiguous success criteria. We analyze why existing evaluation benchmarks and metrics fail to provide…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Yi Zhou , Basel Shbita

Large language models (LLMs) are widely deployed as general-purpose problem solvers, making accurate confidence estimation critical for reliable use. Prior work on LLM calibration largely focuses on response-level confidence, which…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Sin-Han Yang , Cheng-Kuang Wu , Chieh-Yen Lin , Yun-Nung Chen , Hung-yi Lee , Shao-Hua Sun

Large Language Models (LLMs) are distinguished by their architecture, which dictates their parameter size and performance capabilities. Social scientists have increasingly adopted LLMs for text classification tasks, which are difficult to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Marcello Carammia , Stefano Maria Iacus , Giuseppe Porro

We construct evaluation tasks where extending the reasoning length of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) deteriorates performance, exhibiting an inverse scaling relationship between test-time compute and accuracy. Our evaluation tasks span four…

With the widespread adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing need to establish best practices for leveraging their capabilities beyond traditional natural language tasks. In this paper, a novel cross-domain knowledge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Mohammadmahdi Ghasemloo , Alireza Moradi

Large language models (LLMs) have exhibited remarkable capabilities across various domains. The ability to call external tools further expands their capability to handle real-world tasks. However, LLMs often follow an opaque reasoning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Ruixin Zhang , Jon Donnelly , Zhicheng Guo , Ghazal Khalighinejad , Haiyang Huang , Alina Jade Barnett , Cynthia Rudin

Time series forecasting is critical across multiple domains, where time series data exhibit both local patterns and global dependencies. While Transformer-based methods effectively capture global dependencies, they often overlook short-term…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Wenjie Ou , Zhishuo Zhao , Cheng Chen , Dongyue Guo , Yi Lin

This research examines the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in predicting time series, with a specific focus on the LLMTIME model. Despite the established effectiveness of LLMs in tasks such as text generation, language translation, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Rui Cao , Qiao Wang

While large language models (LLMs) showcase unprecedented capabilities, they also exhibit certain inherent limitations when facing seemingly trivial tasks. A prime example is the recently debated "reversal curse", which surfaces when…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-25 Zhengkai Lin , Zhihang Fu , Kai Liu , Liang Xie , Binbin Lin , Wenxiao Wang , Deng Cai , Yue Wu , Jieping Ye

Long-tailed classification is challenging due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities. While existing methods often focus on overall accuracy or accuracy for tail classes, they overlook a critical aspect: certain types of errors can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-27 Bolian Li , Ruqi Zhang

Monitoring forecasting systems is critical for customer satisfaction, profitability, and operational efficiency in large-scale retail businesses. We propose The Forecast Critic, a system that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Luke Bhan , Hanyu Zhang , Andrew Gordon Wilson , Michael W. Mahoney , Chuck Arvin

Fine-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) often demonstrate poor calibration, with their confidence scores misaligned with actual performance. While calibration has been extensively studied in models trained from scratch, the impact of LLMs'…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Ziming Wang , Zeyu Shi , Haoyi Zhou , Shiqi Gao , Qingyun Sun , Jianxin Li

The impressive linguistic abilities of large language models (LLMs) have recommended them as models of human sentence processing, with some conjecturing a positive 'quality-power' relationship (Wilcox et al., 2023), in which language…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Yi-Chien Lin , Hongao Zhu , William Schuler