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Compartmental models, especially the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, have long been used to understand the behaviour of various diseases. Allowing parameters, such as the transmission rate, to be time-dependent functions makes it…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-27 Son Luu , Edward Susko , Lam Si Tung Ho

We consider the problem of independence testing for two univariate random variables in a sequential setting. By leveraging recent developments on safe, anytime-valid inference, we propose a test with time-uniform type I error control and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-29 Alexander Henzi , Michael Law

Randomness or mutual independence is a fundamental assumption forming the basis of statistical inference across disciplines such as economics, finance, and management. Consequently, validating this assumption is essential for the reliable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-27 Shriya Gehlot , Arnab Kumar Laha

Consider $d$ dependent change point tests, each based on a CUSUM-statistic. We provide an asymptotic theory that allows us to deal with the maximum over all test statistics as both the sample size $n$ and $d$ tend to infinity. We achieve…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-07 Moritz Jirak

This paper introduces a regularized test of the null hypothesis of the absence of linear and nonlinear serial dependence for high-dimensional non-Gaussian time series. Our approach extends the portmanteau test introduced in Jasiak and…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-12 Francesco Giancaterini , Alain Hecq , Joann Jasiak , Aryan Manafi Neyazi

We propose a new nonparametric test for the supposition of independence between two continuous random variables. The test is based on the size of the longest increasing subsequence of a random permutation. We identified the independence…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-13 Jesus E. Garcia , Veronica A. Gonzalez-Lopez

This paper explores testing unit roots based on least absolute deviations (LAD) regression under unconditional heteroskedasticity. We first derive the asymptotic properties of the LAD estimator for a first-order autoregressive process with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-18 Jilin Wu , Ruike Wu , Zhijie Xiao

The problem of joint sequential detection and isolation is considered in the context of multiple, not necessarily independent, data streams. A multiple testing framework is proposed, where each hypothesis corresponds to a different subset…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-04 Anamitra Chaudhuri , Georgios Fellouris

We take a different look at the problem of testing the independence of two metric-space-valued random variables using the distance correlation. Instead of testing if the distance correlation vanishes exactly, we are interested in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-19 Holger Dette , Marius Kroll

The problem of measuring conditional dependence between two random phenomena arises when a third one (a confounder) has a potential influence on the amount of information between them. A typical issue in this challenging problem is the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-12 Ferran de Cabrera , Marc Vilà-Insa , Jaume Riba

We propose a test of independence of two multivariate random vectors, given a sample from the underlying population. Our approach, which we call MINT, is based on the estimation of mutual information, whose decomposition into joint and…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-20 Thomas B. Berrett , Richard J. Samworth

We describe a family of conservative statistical tests for independence of two autocorrelated time series. The series may take values in any sets, and one of them must be stationary. A user-specified function quantifying the association of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-15 Kenneth D. Harris

Testing conditional independence between two random vectors given a third is a fundamental and challenging problem in statistics, particularly in multivariate nonparametric settings due to the complexity of conditional structures. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-28 Chenxuan He , Yuan Gao , Liping Zhu , Jian Huang

Distinguishing between cause and effect using time series observational data is a major challenge in many scientific fields. A new perspective has been provided based on the principle of Independence of Causal Mechanisms (ICM), leading to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-01 Michel Besserve , Naji Shajarisales , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schölkopf

Conditional independence is a fundamental concept in many areas of statistical research, including, for example, sufficient dimension reduction, causal inference, and statistical graphical models. In many modern applications, data arise in…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Yin Tang , Bing Li

We propose a simple and intuitive test for arguably the most prevailing hypothesis in statistics that data are independent and identically distributed (IID), based on a newly introduced off-diagonal sequential U-process. This IID test is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-30 Tongyu Li , Jonas Mueller , Fang Yao

Numerical modeling is essential for comprehending intricate physical phenomena in different domains. To handle complexity, sensitivity analysis, particularly screening, is crucial for identifying influential input parameters. Kernel-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-17 Guerlain Lambert , Céline Helbert , Claire Lauvernet

Testing conditional independence has many applications, such as in Bayesian network learning and causal discovery. Different test methods have been proposed. However, existing methods generally can not work when only discretized…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-19 Boyang Sun , Yu Yao , Guang-Yuan Hao , Yumou Qiu , Kun Zhang

This paper proposes new parametric model adequacy tests for possibly nonlinear and nonstationary time series models with noncontinuous data distribution, which is often the case in applied work. In particular, we consider the correct…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-10 Igor Kheifets , Carlos Velasco

This short note suggests a heuristic method for detecting the dependence of random time series that can be used in the case when this dependence is relatively weak and such that the traditional methods are not effective. The method requires…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-02-03 Nikolai Dokuchaev