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Structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The causal structure underlying each such model is naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate for each variable which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-15 David Strieder , Tobias Freidling , Stefan Haffner , Mathias Drton

Inferring the effect of interventions within complex systems is a fundamental problem of statistics. A widely studied approach employs structural causal models that postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-14 David Strieder , Mathias Drton

The goal of Causal Discovery is to find automated search methods for learning causal structures from observational data. In some cases all variables of the interested causal mechanism are measured, and the task is to predict the effects one…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-11 Shuyan Wang

In this paper, we focus on estimating the causal effect of an intervention over time on a dynamical system. To that end, we formally define causal interventions and their effects over time on discrete-time stochastic processes (DSPs). Then,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Martina Cinquini , Isacco Beretta , Salvatore Ruggieri , Isabel Valera

Causal structure discovery in complex dynamical systems is an important challenge for many scientific domains. Although data from (interventional) experiments is usually limited, large amounts of observational time series data sets are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Bart Bussmann , Jannes Nys , Steven Latré

Ordinal variables, such as on the Likert scale, are common in applied research. Yet, existing methods for causal inference tend to target nominal or continuous data. When applied to ordinal data, this fails to account for the inherent…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-26 Martina Scauda , Jack Kuipers , Giusi Moffa

Causal discovery from observational data is an important but challenging task in many scientific fields. Recently, a method with non-combinatorial directed acyclic constraint, called NOTEARS, formulates the causal structure learning problem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Weilin Chen , Jie Qiao , Ruichu Cai , Zhifeng Hao

Instrumental variable (IV) regression relies on instruments to infer causal effects from observational data with unobserved confounding. We consider IV regression in time series models, such as vector auto-regressive (VAR) processes. Direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Nikolaj Thams , Rikke Søndergaard , Sebastian Weichwald , Jonas Peters

When dealing with time series data, causal inference methods often employ structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) processes to model time-evolving random systems. In this work, we rephrase recursive SVAR processes with possible latent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-19 Nicolas-Domenic Reiter , Andreas Gerhardus , Jonas Wahl , Jakob Runge

Nonlinear causal discovery from observational data imposes strict identifiability assumptions on the formulation of structural equations utilized in the data generating process. The evaluation of structure learning methods under assumption…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-17 Georg Velev , Stefan Lessmann

Discovering causal structures with latent variables from observational data is a fundamental challenge in causal discovery. Existing methods often rely on constraint-based, iterative discrete searches, limiting their scalability to large…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Parjanya Prashant , Ignavier Ng , Kun Zhang , Biwei Huang

We present a generalized linear structural causal model, coupled with a novel data-adaptive linear regularization, to recover causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from time series. By leveraging a recently developed stochastic monotone…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Song Wei , Yao Xie , Christopher S. Josef , Rishikesan Kamaleswaran

We present a generalized linear structural causal model, coupled with a novel data-adaptive linear regularization, to recover causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from time series. By leveraging a recently developed stochastic monotone…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-27 Song Wei , Yao Xie , Christopher S. Josef , Rishikesan Kamaleswaran

Observational causal discovery is only identifiable up to the Markov equivalence class. While interventions can reduce this ambiguity, in practice interventions are often soft with multiple unknown targets. In many realistic scenarios, only…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-05 Mingxuan Zhang , Khushi Desai , Sopho Kevlishvili , Elham Azizi

In this paper we present a comprehensive view of prominent causal discovery algorithms, categorized into two main categories (1) assuming acyclic and no latent variables, and (2) allowing both cycles and latent variables, along with…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-09-13 Karamjit Singh , Garima Gupta , Vartika Tewari , Gautam Shroff

In recent years a lot of research has been conducted within the area of causal inference and causal learning. Many methods have been developed to identify the cause-effect pairs in models and have been successfully applied to observational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-26 Benjamin Kap

We investigate the asymptotic properties of Bayesian bivariate causal discovery for Gaussian Linear Structural Equation Models (SEMs) with heteroscedastic noise. We demonstrate that with purely observational data, the posterior distribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-30 Valentinian Lungu , Anish Dhir , Mark van der Wilk , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

Causal discovery (CD) aims to discover the causal graph underlying the data generation mechanism of observed variables. In many real-world applications, the observed variables are vector-valued, such as in climate science where variables…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-16 Urmi Ninad , Jonas Wahl , Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge

Identifying latent variables and the causal structure involving them is essential across various scientific fields. While many existing works fall under the category of constraint-based methods (with e.g. conditional independence or rank…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Ignavier Ng , Xinshuai Dong , Haoyue Dai , Biwei Huang , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang

Causal discovery from time-series data aims to capture both intra-slice (contemporaneous) and inter-slice (time-lagged) causality between variables within the temporal chain, which is crucial for various scientific disciplines. Compared to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-26 Rujia Shen , Boran Wang , Chao Zhao , Yi Guan , Jingchi Jiang