Related papers: Neural Negative Binomial Regression for Weekly Sei…
When applied to the non-linear matter distribution of the universe, neural networks have been shown to be very statistically sensitive probes of cosmological parameters, such as the linear perturbation amplitude $\sigma_8$. However, when…
Evaluation of per-sample uncertainty quantification from neural networks is essential for decision-making involving high-risk applications. A common approach is to use the predictive distribution from Bayesian or approximation models and…
Compared to the standard success (coverage) probability, the meta distribution of the signal-to-interference ratio (SIR) provides much more fine-grained information about the network performance. We consider general heterogeneous cellular…
Inverse problems and, in particular, inferring unknown or latent parameters from data are ubiquitous in engineering simulations. A predominant viewpoint in identifying unknown parameters is Bayesian inference where both prior information…
Rocks under stress deform by creep mechanisms that include formation and slip on small-scale internal cracks. Intragranular cracks and slip along grain contacts release energy as elastic waves termed acoustic emissions (AE). AEs are thought…
Neural Networks can perform poorly when the training label distribution is heavily imbalanced, as well as when the testing data differs from the training distribution. In order to deal with shift in the testing label distribution, which…
To understand the spatial deployment of base stations (BSs) is the first step to analyze the performance of cellular networks and further design efficient networking protocols. Poisson point process (PPP), which has been widely adopted to…
This study introduces the Misclassification Likelihood Matrix (MLM) as a novel tool for quantifying the reliability of neural network predictions under distribution shifts. The MLM is obtained by leveraging softmax outputs and clustering…
Estimating uncertainty from deep neural networks is a widely used approach for detecting out-of-distribution (OoD) samples, which typically exhibit high predictive uncertainty. However, conventional methods such as Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout…
Modeling count-valued time series has been receiving increasing attention since count time series naturally arise in physical and social domains. Poisson gamma dynamical systems (PGDSs) are newly-developed methods, which can well capture…
In order to perform probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) based on subduction zone earthquakes, it is necessary to start with a catalog of possible future events along with the annual probability of occurance, or a probability…
Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…
We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…
An important functional of Poisson random measure is the negative binomial process (NBP). We use NBP to introduce a generalized Poisson-Kingman distribution and its corresponding random discrete probability measure. This random discrete…
Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is…
Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…
Prediction of outstanding claims has been done via nonparametric models (chain ladder), semiparametric models (overdispersed poisson) or fully parametric models. In this paper, we propose models based on negative binomial distributions for…
This paper introduces the $\sigma$-Cell, a novel Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architecture for financial volatility modeling. Bridging traditional econometric approaches like GARCH with deep learning, the $\sigma$-Cell incorporates…
We present a machine learning approach for the aftershock forecasting of Japanese earthquake catalogue from 2015 to 2019. Our method takes as sole input the ground surface deformation as measured by Global Positioning System (GPS) stations…
Recently a likelihood-based methodology has been developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with a view to testing and ranking seismicity models. We analyze this approach from the standpoint of possible…