Related papers: A continuous-time Markov chain framework for popul…
Inferring how an epidemic will progress and what actions to take when presented with limited information is of critical importance for epidemiologists and health professionals. In real world settings, epidemiology data can be scarce or…
The evolutionary process has been modelled in many ways using both stochastic and deterministic models. We develop an algebraic model of evolution in a population of asexually reproducing organisms in which we represent a stochastic walk in…
Many analyses of resource-allocation problems employ simplistic models of the population. Using the example of a resource-allocation problem of Marecek et al. [arXiv:1406.7639], we introduce rather a general behavioural model, where the…
We propose a generative model and an inference scheme for epidemic processes on dynamic, adaptive contact networks. Network evolution is formulated as a link-Markovian process, which is then coupled to an individual-level stochastic SIR…
Continuous-time Markov chains are used to model stochastic systems where transitions can occur at irregular times, e.g., birth-death processes, chemical reaction networks, population dynamics, and gene regulatory networks. We develop a…
The population protocol model describes collections of distributed agents that interact in pairs to solve a common task. We consider a dynamic variant of this prominent model, where we assume that an adversary may change the population size…
In this paper we establish a diffusion limit for a multivariate continuous time Markov chain whose components are indexed by vertices of a finite graph. The components take values in a common finite set of non-negative integers and evolve…
Rule-based modelling allows to represent molecular interactions in a compact and natural way. The underlying molecular dynamics, by the laws of stochastic chemical kinetics, behaves as a continuous-time Markov chain. However, this Markov…
We discuss various models for epidemics on networks that rely on Markov chains. Random walks on graphs are often used to predict epidemic spread and to investigate possible control actions to mitigate them. In this study, we demonstrate…
Mathematical models of biological populations commonly use discrete structure classes to capture trait variation among individuals (e.g. age, size, phenotype, intracellular state). Upscaling these discrete models into continuum descriptions…
A challenge for practitioners of Bayesian inference is specifying a model that incorporates multiple relevant, heterogeneous data sets. It may be easier to instead specify distinct submodels for each source of data, then join the submodels…
This paper analyzes a (1, $\lambda$)-Evolution Strategy, a randomized comparison-based adaptive search algorithm, optimizing a linear function with a linear constraint. The algorithm uses resampling to handle the constraint. Two cases are…
We use the $f-divergence$ also called relative entropy as a measure of diversity between probability densities and review its basic properties. In the sequence we define a few objects which capture relevant information from the sample of a…
Stochastic reaction networks are mathematical models with a wide range of applications in biochemistry, ecology, and epidemiology, and are often complex to analyze. Except for some special cases, it is generally difficult to predict how the…
In this study, we consider sequences drawn from time-homogeneous Markov chains and introduce a novel approach for estimating first hitting-time distributions to specified terminal states. Our method- ology is based on the…
In evolving complex systems such as air traffic and social organizations, collective effects emerge from their many components' dynamic interactions. While the dynamic interactions can be represented by temporal networks with nodes and…
Multiple systems estimation strategies have recently been applied to quantify hard-to-reach populations, particularly when estimating the number of victims of human trafficking and modern slavery. In such contexts, it is not uncommon to see…
We study algorithms to analyze a particular class of Markov population processes that is often used in epidemiology. More specifically, Markov binomial chains are the model that arises from stochastic time-discretizations of classical…
Continuous-time Markov chains on non-negative integers can be used for modeling biological systems, population dynamics, and queueing models. Qualitative behaviors of birth-and-death models, typical examples of such one-dimensional…
A new approach to estimate population size based on a stratified link-tracing sampling design is presented. The method extends on the Frank and Snijders (1994) approach by allowing for heterogeneity in the initial sample selection…