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Foundation models for structured time series data must contend with a fundamental challenge: observations often conflate the true underlying physical phenomena with systematic distortions introduced by measurement instruments. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-09 Jeroen Audenaert , Daniel Muthukrishna , Paul F. Gregory , David W. Hogg , V. Ashley Villar

Bootstrap methods, initially developed for solving statistical and quantum field theories, have recently been shown to capture the discrete spectrum of quantum mechanical problems, such as the single particle Schr\"odinger equation with an…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2021-12-15 Serguei Tchoumakov , Serge Florens

Kernel methods are widely used in causal inference for tasks such as treatment effect estimation, policy evaluation, and policy learning. The bootstrap is a standard tool for uncertainty quantification because of its broad applicability. As…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Matthew Kosko , Falco J , Bargagli-Stoffi , Lin Wang , Michele Santacatterina

The partially linear binary choice model can be used for estimating structural equations where nonlinearity may appear due to diminishing marginal returns, different life cycle regimes, or hectic physical phenomena. The inference procedure…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-01 Wenzheng Gao , Zhenting Sun

The inference of causal relationships using observational data from partially observed multivariate systems with hidden variables is a fundamental question in many scientific domains. Methods extracting causal information from conditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-13 Daniel Chicharro , Michel Besserve , Stefano Panzeri

We consider penalized extremum estimation of a high-dimensional, possibly nonlinear model that is sparse in the sense that most of its parameters are zero but some are not. We use the SCAD penalty function, which provides model selection…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-23 Joel L. Horowitz , Ahnaf Rafi

We use the conformal bootstrap program to derive necessary conditions for emergent symmetry enhancement from discrete symmetry (e.g. $\mathbb{Z}_n$) to continuous symmetry (e.g. $U(1)$) under the renormalization group flow. In three…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2016-09-28 Yu Nakayama , Tomoki Ohtsuki

Normative and task-driven theories offer powerful top-down explanations for biological systems, yet the goals of quantitatively arbitrating between competing theories, and utilizing them as inductive biases to improve data-driven fits of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Bahti Zakirov , Gašper Tkačik

Causal inference often hinges on strong assumptions - such as no unmeasured confounding or perfect compliance - that are rarely satisfied in practice. Partial identification offers a principled alternative: instead of relying on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Tobias Maringgele

Probabilities of causation are fundamental to individual-level explanation and decision making, yet they are inherently counterfactual and not point-identifiable from data in general. Existing bounds either disregard available covariates,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Yuxuan Xie , Ang Li

We propose multiplier bootstrap procedures for nonparametric inference and uncertainty quantification of the target mean function, based on a novel framework of integrating target and source data. We begin with the relatively easier…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-06 Zuofeng Shang , Peijun Sang , Chong Jin

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free and model-agnostic uncertainty-quantification method that provides finite-sample prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. In this work, for the first time, we apply conformal-prediction to…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2026-02-02 Habib Yousefi Dezdarani , Ryan Curry , Alexandros Gezerlis

Ascertaining causal direction from observational data is a fundamental challenge in scientific inquiry. Of particular interest is the problem of covariate-adjusted bivariate causal discovery, i.e., determining the causal direction between X…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-30 Soumik Purkayastha , Peter X. -K. Song

We propose a kernel-based nonparametric estimator for the causal effect when the cause is corrupted by error. We do so by generalizing estimation in the instrumental variable setting. Despite significant work on regression with measurement…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Yuchen Zhu , Limor Gultchin , Arthur Gretton , Matt Kusner , Ricardo Silva

Rule-based models, such as decision trees, appeal to practitioners due to their interpretable nature. However, the learning algorithms that produce such models are often vulnerable to spurious associations and thus, they are not guaranteed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Thibaud Godon , Baptiste Bauvin , Pascal Germain , Jacques Corbeil , Alexandre Drouin

The ability to learn disentangled representations that split underlying sources of variation in high dimensional, unstructured data is important for data efficient and robust use of neural networks. While various approaches aiming towards…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-15 Raphael Suter , Đorđe Miladinović , Bernhard Schölkopf , Stefan Bauer

Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-23 Carlos Mougan , Dan Saattrup Nielsen

This paper studies causal discovery in irregularly sampled time series-a key challenge in risk-sensitive domains like finance, healthcare, and climate science, where missing data and inconsistent sampling frequencies distort causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Weihong Li , Baohong Li , Anpeng Wu , Zhihan Li , Ming Ma , Keting Yin , Kun Kuang

It is commonplace to encounter nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process may change over time or across domains. The nonstationarity presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-06-21 Kun Zhang , Biwei Huang , Jiji Zhang , Bernhard Schölkopf , Clark Glymour

While causal models are becoming one of the mainstays of machine learning, the problem of uncertainty quantification in causal inference remains challenging. In this paper, we study the causal data fusion problem, where datasets pertaining…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-08 Siu Lun Chau , Jean-François Ton , Javier González , Yee Whye Teh , Dino Sejdinovic