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We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian parameter inference in non-linear state-space models with intractable likelihoods. Sequential Monte Carlo with approximate Bayesian computations (SMC-ABC) is one approach to approximate the…
Non-Gaussian likelihoods are essential for modelling complex real-world observations but pose significant computational challenges in learning and inference. Even with Gaussian priors, non-Gaussian likelihoods often lead to analytically…
A method is introduced for approximate marginal likelihood inference via adaptive Gaussian quadrature in mixed models with a single grouping factor. The core technical contribution is an algorithm for computing the exact gradient of the…
We present a Gaussian Process - Latent Class Choice Model (GP-LCCM) to integrate a non-parametric class of probabilistic machine learning within discrete choice models (DCMs). Gaussian Processes (GPs) are kernel-based algorithms that…
We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…
In recent years, spatial and spatio-temporal modeling have become an important area of research in many fields (epidemiology, environmental studies, disease mapping). In this work we propose different spatial models to study hospital…
We propose a posterior for Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference (LFI) based on generalized Bayesian inference. To define the posterior, we use Scoring Rules (SRs), which evaluate probabilistic models given an observation. In LFI, we can…
Many models require integrals of high-dimensional functions: for instance, to obtain marginal likelihoods. Such integrals may be intractable, or too expensive to compute numerically. Instead, we can use the Laplace approximation (LA). The…
The future predictive performance of a Bayesian model can be estimated using Bayesian cross-validation. In this article, we consider Gaussian latent variable models where the integration over the latent values is approximated using the…
Laplace approximations are popular techniques for endowing deep networks with epistemic uncertainty estimates as they can be applied without altering the predictions of the trained network, and they scale to large models and datasets. While…
Inverse problems are prevalent in both scientific research and engineering applications. In the context of Bayesian inverse problems, sampling from the posterior distribution can be particularly challenging when the forward models are…
Approximate inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with non-conjugate likelihoods gets entangled with the learning of the model hyperparameters. We improve hyperparameter learning in GP models and focus on the interplay between…
Inference for high-dimensional logistic regression models using penalized methods has been a challenging research problem. As an illustration, a major difficulty is the significant bias of the Lasso estimator, which limits its direct…
Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) are hierarchical generalizations of Gaussian Processes that combine well calibrated uncertainty estimates with the high flexibility of multilayer models. One of the biggest challenges with these models is that…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful tools for nonlinear classification in which latent GPs are combined with link functions. But GPs do not scale well to large training data. This is compounded for classification where the latent GPs…
Robust time series analysis is an important subject in statistical modeling. Models based on Gaussian distribution are sensitive to outliers, which may imply in a significant degradation in estimation performance as well as in prediction…
We consider importance sampling (IS) type weighted estimators based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) targeting an approximate marginal of the target distribution. In the context of Bayesian latent variable models, the MCMC typically…
Photon-limited images are often seen in fields such as medical imaging. Although the number of collected photons on an image sensor statistically follows Poisson distribution, this type of noise is intractable, unlike Gaussian noise. In…
Latent Gaussian models have a rich history in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from factor analysis to compressed sensing to time series analysis. The classical method for maximizing the likelihood of these models…
We focus on Bayesian inverse problems with Gaussian likelihood, linear forward model, and priors that can be formulated as a Gaussian mixture. Such a mixture is expressed as an integral of Gaussian density functions weighted by a mixing…