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Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sam- pling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Carsten Hartmann , Christof Schütte , Marcus Weber , Wei Zhang

We derive concentration inequalities for the supremum norm of the difference between a kernel density estimator (KDE) and its point-wise expectation that hold uniformly over the selection of the bandwidth and under weaker conditions on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-01 Jisu Kim , Jaehyeok Shin , Alessandro Rinaldo , Larry Wasserman

We consider importance sampling (IS) type weighted estimators based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) targeting an approximate marginal of the target distribution. In the context of Bayesian latent variable models, the MCMC typically…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-22 Matti Vihola , Jouni Helske , Jordan Franks

We consider the sample efficient estimation of failure probabilities from expensive oracle evaluations of a limit state function via importance sampling (IS). In contrast to conventional ``two stage'' approaches, which first train a…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-10 Ashwin Renganathan , Annie S. Booth

Driven by several successful applications such as in stochastic gradient descent or in Bayesian computation, control variates have become a major tool for Monte Carlo integration. However, standard methods do not allow the distribution of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-06 Rémi Leluc , François Portier , Johan Segers , Aigerim Zhuman

Importance sampling is a well developed method in statistics. Given a random variable $X$, the problem of estimating its expected value $\mu$ is addressed. The standard approach is to use the sample mean as an estimator $\bar x$. In…

Applications · Statistics 2014-05-09 Georg Hofmann

For complex latent variable models, the likelihood function is not available in closed form. In this context, a popular method to perform parameter estimation is Importance Weighted Variational Inference. It essentially maximizes the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-16 Badr-Eddine Cherief-Abdellatif , Randal Douc , Arnaud Doucet , Hugo Marival

We introduce overdispersed black-box variational inference, a method to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator of the gradient in black-box variational inference. Instead of taking samples from the variational distribution, we use…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-04 Francisco J. R. Ruiz , Michalis K. Titsias , David M. Blei

Implicit sampling is a weighted sampling method that is used in data assimilation, where one sequentially updates estimates of the state of a stochastic model based on a stream of noisy or incomplete data. Here we describe how to use…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-01-20 Matthias Morzfeld , Xuemin Tu , Jon Wilkening , Alexandre J. Chorin

Among Monte Carlo techniques, the importance sampling requires fine tuning of a proposal distribution, which is now fluently resolved through iterative schemes. The Adaptive Multiple Importance Sampling (AMIS) of Cornuet et al. (2012)…

Computation · Statistics 2014-05-27 Jean-Michel Marin , Pierre Pudlo , Mohammed Sedki

Mutual information (MI) is a fundamental quantity in information theory and machine learning. However, direct estimation of MI is intractable, even if the true joint probability density for the variables of interest is known, as it involves…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-29 Rob Brekelmans , Sicong Huang , Marzyeh Ghassemi , Greg Ver Steeg , Roger Grosse , Alireza Makhzani

Many Bayesian inference problems involve high-dimensional models where the performance of standard importance sampling (IS) methods often degrades rapidly as the dimensionality increases. Classical analyses of IS typically rely on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-29 Fabián González , Víctor Elvira , Joaquín Míguez

We apply the sample average approximation (SAA) method to risk-neutral optimization problems governed by nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) with random inputs. We analyze the consistency of the SAA optimal values and SAA…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-08-03 Johannes Milz

Importance sampling (IS) is a Monte Carlo methodology that allows for approximation of a target distribution using weighted samples generated from another proposal distribution. Adaptive importance sampling (AIS) implements an iterative…

Computation · Statistics 2018-06-04 Yousef El-Laham , Victor Elvira , Monica F. Bugallo

Multiple importance sampling (MIS) is an increasingly used methodology where several proposal densities are used to approximate integrals, generally involving target probability density functions. The use of several proposals allows for a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-12 Rahul Mukerjee , Víctor Elvira

To efficiently evaluate system reliability based on Monte Carlo simulation, importance sampling is used widely. The optimal importance sampling density was derived in 1950s for the deterministic simulation model, which maps an input to an…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-04 Quoc Dung Cao , Youngjun Choe

Score based approaches to sampling have shown much success as a generative algorithm to produce new samples from a target density given a pool of initial samples. In this work, we consider if we have no initial samples from the target…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Curtis McDonald , Andrew Barron

Importance sampling is a technique that is commonly used to speed up Monte Carlo simulation of rare events. However, little is known regarding the design of efficient importance sampling algorithms in the context of queueing networks. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Paul Dupuis , Ali Devin Sezer , Hui Wang

The Bayesian estimation of the unknown parameters of state-space (dynamical) systems has received considerable attention over the past decade, with a handful of powerful algorithms being introduced. In this paper we tackle the theoretical…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-13 Joaquin Miguez , Ines P. Mariño , Manuel A. Vazquez

Monte Carlo techniques, including MCMC and other methods, are widely used in Bayesian inference to generate sets of samples from a parameter space of interest. The Python GetDist package provides tools for analysing these samples and…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-08-11 Antony Lewis