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The goal of any estimation study is an interval estimation of a the parameter(s) of interest. These estimations are mostly expressed using empirical confidence intervals that are based on sample point estimates of the corresponding…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-03 Ilya Novikov

We investigate Bayesian predictive inference for finite population quantities when there are unequal probabilities of selection. Only limited information about the sample design is available; i.e., only the first-order selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-10 Junheng Ma , Joe Sedransk , Balgobin Nandram , Lu Chen

Tolerance intervals provide bounds that contain a specified proportion of a population with a given confidence level, yet their construction remains challenging when parametric assumptions fail or sample sizes are small. Traditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 Tony Pourmohamad , Robert Richardson , Bruno Sansó

In the presence of sample selection, Lee's (2009) nonparametric bounds are a popular tool for estimating a treatment effect. However, the Lee bounds rely on the monotonicity assumption, whose empirical validity is sometimes unclear.…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-07 Yuta Okamoto

The problem tackled in this paper is the determination of sample size for a given level and power in the context of a simple linear regression model. At a technical level, the simple linear regression model is a five-parameter model. It is…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-25 Tianyuan Guan , M. Khorshed Alam , M. Bhaskara Rao

Estimation frameworks for statistical inference are preferred to hypothesis testing when quantifying uncertainty and precise estimation are more valuable than binary decisions about statistical significance. Study design for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Luke Hagar , Nathaniel T. Stevens

Large language models (LLMs) have been proposed as alternatives to human experts for estimating unknown quantities with associated uncertainty, a process known as Bayesian elicitation. We test this by asking eleven LLMs to estimate…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Luka Hobor , Mario Brcic , Mihael Kovac , Kristijan Poje

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

The accuracy of binary classification systems is defined as the proportion of correct predictions - both positive and negative - made by a classification model or computational algorithm. A value between 0 (no accuracy) and 1 (perfect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-28 Jacques Balayla

Medical research has evolved conventions for choosing sample size in randomized clinical trials that rest on the theory of hypothesis testing. Bayesians have argued that trials should be designed to maximize subjective expected utility in…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-11 Charles F. Manski , Aleksey Tetenov

Power and sample size analysis comprises a critical component of clinical trial study design. There is an extensive collection of methods addressing this problem from diverse perspectives. The Bayesian paradigm, in particular, has attracted…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-08 Jane Pan , Sudipto Banerjee

Selection bias is a common concern in epidemiologic studies. In the literature, selection bias is often viewed as a missing data problem. Popular approaches to adjust for bias due to missing data, such as inverse probability weighting, rely…

We introduce a new multiple type I error criterion for clinical trials with multiple populations. Such trials are of interest in precision medicine where the goal is to develop treatments that are targeted to specific sub-populations…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-05 Werner Brannath , Charlie Hillner , Kornelius Rohmeyer

Objectives: Estimation of areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and their differences is a key task in diagnostic studies. We aimed to derive, evaluate, and implement simple sample size formulas for such studies with a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-03 Di Shu , Guangyong Zou

Datasets are rarely a realistic approximation of the target population. Say, prevalence is misrepresented, image quality is above clinical standards, etc. This mismatch is known as sampling bias. Sampling biases are a major hindrance for…

Consider a two-by-two factorial experiment with more than 1 replicate. Suppose that we have uncertain prior information that the two-factor interaction is zero. We describe new simultaneous frequentist confidence intervals for the 4…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-15 Paul Kabaila , Khageswor Giri

Randomized controlled clinical trials provide the gold standard for evidence generation in relation to the efficacy of a new treatment in medical research. Relevant information from previous studies may be desirable to incorporate in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-29 Lou E. Whitehead , James M. S. Wason , Oliver Sailer , Haiyan Zheng

To perform inference after model selection, we propose controlling the selective type I error; i.e., the error rate of a test given that it was performed. By doing so, we recover long-run frequency properties among selected hypotheses…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-19 William Fithian , Dennis Sun , Jonathan Taylor

Inference after model selection has been an active research topic in the past few years, with numerous works offering different approaches to addressing the perils of the reuse of data. In particular, major progress has been made recently…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-02 Snigdha Panigrahi , Jonathan Taylor , Asaf Weinstein

This paper presents a theoretical analysis of sample selection bias correction. The sample bias correction technique commonly used in machine learning consists of reweighting the cost of an error on each training point of a biased sample to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2008-12-18 Corinna Cortes , Mehryar Mohri , Michael Riley , Afshin Rostamizadeh