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Given a black-box AI system and a task, at what confidence level can a practitioner trust the system's output? We answer with a reliability level -- a single number per system-task pair, derived from self-consistency sampling and conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Charafeddine Mouzouni

Artificial intelligence safety research focuses on aligning individual language models with human values, yet deployed AI systems increasingly operate as interacting populations where social influence may override individual alignment. Here…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-05-12 Giordano De Marzo , Alessandro Bellina , Claudio Castellano , Viola Priesemann , David Garcia

Performance uncertainty quantification is essential for reliable validation and eventual clinical translation of medical imaging artificial intelligence (AI). Confidence intervals (CIs) play a central role in this process by indicating how…

Uncertainty-aware prediction is essential for safe motion planning, especially when using learned models to forecast the behavior of surrounding agents. Conformal prediction is a statistical tool often used to produce uncertainty-aware…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-19 Allen Emmanuel Binny , Anushri Dixit

Foundation model (FM)-based AI agents are rapidly gaining adoption across diverse domains, but their inherent non-determinism and non-reproducibility pose testing and quality assurance challenges. While recent benchmarks provide task-level…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Mohammed Mehedi Hasan , Hao Li , Emad Fallahzadeh , Gopi Krishnan Rajbahadur , Bram Adams , Ahmed E. Hassan

This paper addresses the problem of providing runtime assurance for systems operating online under unknown and potentially time-varying data distributions. We propose Cost-Aware Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI), a novel framework that…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-26 Taoran Wu , Jingduo Pan , Luke Ong , Bai Xue

Traditional software relies on contracts -- APIs, type systems, assertions -- to specify and enforce correct behavior. AI agents, by contrast, operate on prompts and natural language instructions with no formal behavioral specification.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Varun Pratap Bhardwaj

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-27 Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , James McInerney , Nathan Kallus

Reliable uncertainty quantification is crucial for reinforcement learning (RL) in high-stakes settings. We propose a unified conformal prediction framework for infinite-horizon policy evaluation that constructs distribution-free prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-31 Feichen Gan , Youcun Lu , Yingying Zhang , Yukun Liu

In this paper, we adopt conformal prediction, a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, to obtain confidence prediction intervals with coverage guarantees for Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) regression. Initially, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-26 Christian Moya , Amirhossein Mollaali , Zecheng Zhang , Lu Lu , Guang Lin

Deploying trustworthy AI systems requires principled uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used framework for constructing prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees. In many practical settings,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Haifeng Wen , Osvaldo Simeone , Hong Xing

Conformal prediction provides rigorous distribution-free finite-sample guarantees for marginal coverage under the assumption of exchangeability, but may exhibit systematic undercoverage or overcoverage for specific subpopulations. Assessing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Zheng Zhou , Xiangfei Zhang , Chongguang Tao , Yuhong Yang

Legal compliance in AI-driven data transfer planning is becoming increasingly critical under stringent privacy regulations such as the Japanese Act on the Protection of Personal Information (APPI). We propose a multi-agent legal verifier…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Ha-Thanh Nguyen , Wachara Fungwacharakorn , Ken Satoh

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems accelerate medical workflows and improve diagnostic accuracy in healthcare, serving as second-opinion systems. However, the unpredictability of AI errors poses a significant challenge, particularly in…

AI agents are increasingly deployed to automate complex enterprise workflows, yet evidence of their effectiveness in identity governance is limited. We report results from the first randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluating an AI agent…

General Economics · Economics 2025-11-19 James Bono , Beibei Cheng , Joaquin Lozano

We study whether state-of-the-art AI coding agents, given the same data and research question, produce the same empirical results. Deploying 150 autonomous Claude Code agents to independently test six hypotheses about market quality trends…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Ruijiang Gao , Steven Chong Xiao

We study the selection of agents based on mutual nominations, a theoretical problem with many applications from committee selection to AI alignment. As agents both select and are selected, they may be incentivized to misrepresent their true…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Javier Cembrano , Felix Fischer , Max Klimm

Reliable uncertainty quantification is of critical importance in time series forecasting, yet traditional methods often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions. Conformal prediction (CP) has emerged as a promising distribution-free…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Andro Sabashvili

From software development to robot control, modern agentic systems decompose complex objectives into a sequence of subtasks and choose a set of specialized AI agents to complete them. We formalize agentic workflows as directed acyclic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Guruprerana Shabadi , Rajeev Alur

This paper presents continuous dynamic average consensus (DAC) algorithms for a group of agents to estimate the average of their time-varying reference signals cooperatively. We propose consensus algorithms that are robust to agents joining…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-11-07 Solomon Gudeta , Ali Karimoddini , Mohammadreza Davoodi