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We develop adaptive replicated designs for Gaussian process metamodels of stochastic experiments. Adaptive batching is a natural extension of sequential design heuristics with the benefit of replication growing as response features are…

We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…

Motivated by the widespread use of temporal-difference (TD-) and Q-learning algorithms in reinforcement learning, this paper studies a class of biased stochastic approximation (SA) procedures under a mild "ergodic-like" assumption on the…

We obtain Berry-Esseen-type bounds for the sum of random variables with a dependency graph and uniformly bounded moments of order $\delta \in (2,\infty]$ using a Fourier transform approach. Our bounds improve the state-of-the-art in the…

This paper studies the Gaussian approximation of high-dimensional and non-degenerate U-statistics of order two under the supremum norm. We propose a two-step Gaussian approximation procedure that does not impose structural assumptions on…

In this paper we consider the construction of simultaneous confidence bands for the spectral density of a stationary time series using a Gaussian approximation for classical lag-window spectral density estimators evaluated at the set of all…

Stochastic approximation (SA) with multiple coupled sequences has found broad applications in machine learning such as bilevel learning and reinforcement learning (RL). In this paper, we study the finite-time convergence of nonlinear SA…

Motivated by statistical inference problems in high-dimensional time series data analysis, we first derive non-asymptotic error bounds for Gaussian approximations of sums of high-dimensional dependent random vectors on hyper-rectangles,…

Generalized Linear Model (or GLM) extends the ordinary linear regression by linking the mean of the response variable to covariates through appropriate link functions. GLM is widely used in the analysis of datasets arising from diverse…

We provide finite sample bounds on the Normal approximation to the law of the least squares estimator of the projection parameters normalized by the sandwich-based standard errors. Our results hold in the increasing dimension setting and…

In this paper, we study a large-scale multi-agent minimax optimization problem, which models many interesting applications in statistical learning and game theory, including Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). The overall objective is a…

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the limiting variance of asymptotically stationary Gaussian processes observed at high frequency, using the second moment estimator (SME). We study rates of convergence of the central limit theorem…

Stochastic variational inference (SVI) is emerging as the most promising candidate for scaling inference in Bayesian probabilistic models to large datasets. However, the performance of these methods has been assessed primarily in the…

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) or stochastic approximation has been widely used in model training and stochastic optimization. While there is a huge literature on analyzing its convergence, inference on the obtained solutions from SGD…

This paper is concerned with finite sample approximations to the supremum of a non-degenerate $U$-process of a general order indexed by a function class. We are primarily interested in situations where the function class as well as the…

Many computer simulations are stochastic and exhibit input dependent noise. In such situations, heteroskedastic Gaussian processes (hetGPs) make ideal surrogates as they estimate a latent, non-constant variance. However, existing hetGP…

In this work, we study scaling limits of shallow Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) via their connection to Gaussian processes (GPs), with an emphasis on statistical modeling, identifiability, and scalable inference. We first establish a…

This paper considers a novel multi-agent linear stochastic approximation algorithm driven by Markovian noise and general consensus-type interaction, in which each agent evolves according to its local stochastic approximation process which…

We present a convergence rate analysis for biased stochastic gradient descent (SGD), where individual gradient updates are corrupted by computation errors. We develop stochastic quadratic constraints to formulate a small linear matrix…

We adapt Stein's method to obtain Berry--Esseen type error bounds in the multivariate central limit theorem for non-stationary processes generated by time-dependent compositions of uniformly expanding dynamical systems. In a particular case…