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For autonomous agents to successfully operate in real world, the ability to anticipate future motions of surrounding entities in the scene can greatly enhance their safety levels since potentially dangerous situations could be avoided in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Yeping Hu , Wei Zhan , Liting Sun , Masayoshi Tomizuka

We develop an axiomatic framework to evaluate income distributions from the perspective of an opportunity-egalitarian social planner. Building on a formal link with the literature on decision theory under ambiguity, we characterize a class…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-31 T. Wienand , B. Magdalou , R. Nock , P. Hufe

This extended abstract describes an ongoing project that attempts to blend publicly available organic, real time behavioral data, event data, and traditional migration data to determine when and where people will move during times of…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Lisa Singh , Katharine Donato , Ali Arab , Tomas Alvarez Belon , Abraham Fraifeld , Sean Fulmer , Douglas Post , Yanchen Wang

Causal inference has traditionally focused on interventions at the unit level. In many applications, however, the central question concerns the causal effects of connections between units, such as transportation links, social relationships,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Shuli Chen , Jie Hu , Zhichao Jiang

This Element offers a practical guide to estimating conditional marginal effects-how treatment effects vary with a moderating variable-using modern statistical methods. Commonly used approaches, such as linear interaction models, often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Jiehan Liu , Ziyi Liu , Yiqing Xu

Statistical evaluation aims to estimate the generalization performance of a model using held-out i.i.d.\ test data sampled from the ground-truth distribution. In supervised learning settings such as classification, performance metrics such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Shashaank Aiyer , Yishay Mansour , Shay Moran , Han Shao

When we interpret linear regression as estimating causal effects justified by quasi-experimental treatment variation, what do we mean? This paper formalizes a minimal criterion for quasi-experimental interpretation and characterizes its…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Jiafeng Chen

The use of causal mediation analysis to evaluate the pathways by which an exposure affects an outcome is widespread in the social and biomedical sciences. Recent advances in this area have established formal conditions for identification…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-14 Isabel R. Fulcher , Xu Shi , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

We consider linear structural equation models with explicitly modelled latent variables. In such models, observed and latent variables solve linear equations including stochastic noise terms. The goal of our work is to identify the direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Tom Hochsprung , Nils Sturma , Jakob Runge , Mathias Drton , Andreas Gerhardus

Epidemiologists increasingly use causal inference methods that rely on machine learning, as these approaches can relax unnecessary model specification assumptions. While deriving and studying asymptotic properties of such estimators is a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-11 Audrey Renson , Lina Montoya , Dana E. Goin , Iván Díaz , Rachael K. Ross

Educational attainment generates labor market returns, societal gains and has intrinsic value for individuals. We study Inequality of Opportunity (IOp) and intergenerational mobility in the distribution of educational attainment. We propose…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-03-09 Joël Terschuur

In indirect measurements, the measurand is determined by solving an inverse problem which requires a model of the measurement process. Such models are often approximations and introduce systematic errors leading to a bias of the posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-22 Maren Casfor , Philipp Trunschke , Sebastian Heidenreich , Nando Hegemann

Various members of the class of weighted insurance premiums and risk capital allocation rules have been researched from a number of perspectives. Corresponding formulas in the case of parametric families of distributions have been derived,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-11 Nadezhda Gribkova , Ričardas Zitikis

The method of instrumental variables provides a fundamental and practical tool for causal inference in many empirical studies where unmeasured confounding between the treatments and the outcome is present. Modern data such as the genetical…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-28 Ziang Niu , Yuwen Gu , Wei Li

The empirical literature on the relationship between income inequality and economic growth has produced highly heterogeneous and often conflicting results. This paper investigates the sources of this heterogeneity using a meta-analytic…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-23 Lisa Capretti , Lorenzo Tonni

Income inequality and redistribution policies are modeled with a minimal, endogenous model of a simple foraging economy. Significant income inequalities emerge from the model for populations of equally capable individuals presented with…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-11-21 John C. Stevenson

I review recent work in the statistics literature on instrumental variables methods from an econometrics perspective. I discuss some of the older, economic, applications including supply and demand models and relate them to the recent…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-02 Guido W. Imbens

In this paper, we investigate the economic mobility in some money transfer models which have been applied into the research on wealth distribution. We demonstrate the mobility by recording the time series of agents' ranks and observing…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-11 Ning Ding , Ning Xi , Yougui Wang

Structured additive distributional regression models offer a versatile framework for estimating complete conditional distributions by relating all parameters of a parametric distribution to covariates. Although these models efficiently…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-14 Jana Kleinemeier , Nadja Klein

Inference for fixed effects estimators is often unreliable due to Nickell- and incidental parameter biases. While these issues are well understood for classical two-dimensional panels, little is known about three-dimensional panel…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-05 Daniel Czarnowske , Amrei Stammann