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We study the drivers and spatial diffusion of U.S. state population growth using a dynamic spatial model for 49 states, 1965-2017. Methodologically, we recover the spatial network structure from the data, rather than imposing it a priori…
Graph neural ordinary differential equations (Graph ODEs) extend graph learning from discrete message-passing layers to continuous-time representation flows. While it supports adaptive long-range propagation, we show that Graph ODEs with…
Age-structured models capture the dynamic behavior of populations over time and result in nonlinear integro-partial differential equations (IPDEs). These processes arise in various fields such as biotechnology, economics, or demography.…
Recent biological evidence suggests the presence of a two-phase ageing process in several species. We introduce a system of two age-structured partial differential equations (PDE) representing two phases of ageing of a wild population. The…
One of the simplest examples of a robust heteroclinic cycle involves three saddle equilibria: each one is unstable to the next in turn, and connections from one to the next occur within invariant subspaces. Such a situation can be described…
This paper examines the relationship between Official Development Assistance (ODA) and conflict in the ten largest aid-receiving African countries between 2009 and 2023. Using Ordinary Least Squares, Principal Component Analysis, and Ridge…
We study the critical phenomena of the dynamical transition from a metastable state to a stable state in the model of first-order phase transition via two different triggering mechanisms. Three universal stages during the fully nonlinear…
Student dropout is a persistent concern in Learning Analytics, yet comparative studies frequently evaluate predictive models under heterogeneous protocols, prioritizing discrimination over temporal interpretability and calibration. This…
We investigate different emergent dynamics namely oscillation quenching and revival of oscillation in a global network of identical oscillators coupled with diffusive (positive) delay coupling as it is perturbed by symmetry breaking…
Dynamical systems containing heteroclinic cycles and networks can be invoked as models of intransitive competition between three or more species. When populations are assumed to be well-mixed, a system of ordinary differential equations…
We examine a model system where attractors may consist of a heteroclinic cycle between chaotic sets; this `cycling chaos' manifests itself as trajectories that spend increasingly long periods lingering near chaotic invariant sets…
Spatial distribution of the human population is distinctly heterogeneous, e.g. showing significant difference in the population density between urban and rural areas. In the historical perspective, i.e. on the timescale of centuries, the…
The risk of conflict is exasperated by a multitude of internal and external factors. Current multivariate analysis paints diverse causal risk profiles that vary with time. However, these profiles evolve and a universal model to understand…
This article aims to model international trade relationships among 29 countries in the apparel industry between 1994 and 2013. Bilateral trade flows can be represented as a directed network, where nodes correspond to countries and directed…
An important challenge in several disciplines is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples include the synchronization of business cycles, population collapse in patchy ecosystems, markets shifting to a…
To understand how fluctuations arise and are distributed in international trade, a question crucial for economic risk assessment and policymaking, we analyze strong adverse fluctuations-collapsed trades-defined as individual trades with…
The competing effect of heterogeneity and symmetry breaking coupling on the emerging dynamics in a system of N globally coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators is investigated. Increasing the heterogeneity, using the standard deviation of the…
The process of European integration resulted in a marked increase in transnational economic flows, yet regional inequalities along many developmental indicators remain. We analyze the unevenness of European economies with respect to the…
Binary decision-making process is ubiquitous in social life and is of vital significance in many real-world issues, ranging from public health to political campaigns. While continuous opinion evolution independent of discrete choice…
We study in details the turnout rate statistics for 77 elections in 11 different countries. We show that the empirical results established in a previous paper for French elections appear to hold much more generally. We find in particular…