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This study presents a deep learning-based framework for predicting emergency department (ED) boarding counts six hours in advance using only operational and contextual data, without patient-level information. Data from ED tracking systems,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-14 Orhun Vural , Bunyamin Ozaydin , James Booth , Brittany F. Lindsey , Abdulaziz Ahmed

Background: Emergency department (ED) overcrowding remains a major challenge, causing delays in care and increased operational strain. Hospital management often reacts to congestion after it occurs. Machine learning predictive modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Orhun Vural , Bunyamin Ozaydin , Khalid Y. Aram , James Booth , Brittany F. Lindsey , Abdulaziz Ahmed

Problem definition: Emergency department (ED) boarding refers to the practice of holding patients in the ED after they have been admitted to hospital wards, usually resulting from insufficient inpatient resources. Boarded patients may…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-17 Shasha Han , Shuangchi He , Hong Choon Oh

Over the past several years, across the globe, there has been an increase in people seeking care in emergency departments (EDs). ED resources, including nurse staffing, are strained by such increases in patient volume. Accurate forecasting…

Emergency department (ED) crowding is a significant threat to patient safety and it has been repeatedly associated with increased mortality. Forecasting future service demand has the potential patient outcomes. Despite active research on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-01 Jalmari Tuominen , Eetu Pulkkinen , Jaakko Peltonen , Juho Kanniainen , Niku Oksala , Ari Palomäki , Antti Roine

Study Objective: To analyze the factors influencing Emergency Department (ED) overcrowding by examining the impacts of operational, environmental, and external variables, including weather conditions and football games. Methods: This study…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Abdulaziz Ahmed , Khalid Y Aram , Mohammed Alzeen , Orhun Vural , James Booth , Brittany F. Lindsey , Bunyamin Ozaydin

Emergency Department (ED) overcrowding continues to be a public health issue as well as a patient safety issue. The underlying factors leading to ED crowding are numerous, varied, and complex. Although lack of in-hospital beds is frequently…

Emergency department's (ED) boarding (defined as ED waiting time greater than four hours) has been linked to poor patient outcomes and health system performance. Yet, effective forecasting models is rare before COVID-19, lacking during the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-22 Eman Leung , Jingjing Guan , Kin On Kwok , CT Hung , CC. Ching , CK. Chung , Hector Tsang , EK Yeoh , Albert Lee

One of the most urgent problems is the overcrowding in emergency departments (EDs), caused by an aging population and rising healthcare costs. Patient dispositions have become more complex as a result of the strain on hospital…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Nafisa Binte Feroz , Chandrima Sarker , Tanzima Ahsan , K M Arefeen Sultan , Raqeebir Rab

Emergency department (ED) crowding is a well-recognized threat to patient safety and it has been repeatedly associated with increased mortality. Accurate forecasts of future service demand could lead to better resource management and has…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-01-24 Jalmari Tuominen , Teemu Koivistoinen , Juho Kanniainen , Niku Oksala , Ari Palomäki , Antti Roine

There were 25.6 million attendances at Emergency Departments (EDs) in England in 2019 corresponding to an increase of 12 million attendances over the past ten years. The steadily rising demand at EDs creates a constant challenge to provide…

Most of the studies dealing with the increasing and well-known problem of Emergency Department (ED) overcrowding usually mainly focus on modeling the patient flow within a single ED, without considering the possibilities offered by the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-08-10 Christian Piermarini , Massimo Roma

We study the estimation of the probability distribution of individual patient waiting times in an emergency department (ED). Our feature-rich modelling allows for dynamic updating and refinement of waiting time estimates as patient- and…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-02 Siddharth Arora , James W. Taylor , Ho-Yin Mak

In the emergency department (ED), patients undergo triage and multiple laboratory tests before diagnosis. This time-consuming process causes ED crowding which impacts patient mortality, medical errors, staff burnout, etc. This work proposes…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-29 Liwen Sun , Abhineet Agarwal , Aaron Kornblith , Bin Yu , Chenyan Xiong

Emergency Departments (EDs) are a fundamental element of the Portuguese National Health Service, serving as an entry point for users with diverse and very serious medical problems. Due to the inherent characteristics of the ED; forecasting…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-06-27 Francisco M. Caldas , Cláudia Soares

Background: The stochastic behavior of patient arrival at an emergency department (ED) complicates the management of an ED. More than 50% of hospitals ED capacity tends to operate beyond its normal capacity and eventually fails to deliver…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2019-01-10 Avishek Choudhury

Environments such as shopping malls, airports, or hospital emergency departments often experience crowding, with many people simultaneously requesting service. Crowding is highly noisy, with sudden overcrowding "spikes". Past research has…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-08-16 Gil Parnass , Osnat Levtzion-Korach , Renana Peres , Michael Assaf

This work proposes a framework for optimizing machine learning algorithms. The practicality of the framework is illustrated using an important case study from the healthcare domain, which is predicting the admission status of emergency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-21 Abdulaziz Ahmed , Omar Ashour , Haneen Ali , Mohammad Firouz

Recently, the combination of machine learning (ML) and simulation is gaining a lot of attention. This paper presents a novel application of ML within the simulation to improve patient flow within an emergency department (ED). An ML model…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2020-12-03 Emad Alenany , Abdessamad Ait El Cadi

Emergency Department overcrowding is a critical issue that compromises patient safety and operational efficiency, necessitating accurate demand forecasting for effective resource allocation. This study evaluates and compares three distinct…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Jakub Antczak , James Montgomery , Małgorzata O'Reilly , Zbigniew Palmowski , Richard Turner
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