Related papers: Multi-state model with temporal-consistent surviva…
Transition probability estimation plays a critical role in multi-state modeling, especially in clinical research. This paper investigates the application of semi-Markov and Markov renewal frameworks to the EBMT dataset, focusing on six…
Continuous-time Markov chains on non-negative integers can be used for modeling biological systems, population dynamics, and queueing models. Qualitative behaviors of birth-and-death models, typical examples of such one-dimensional…
We introduce a continuous-time Markov chain framework for estimating population size from multi-list data, which allows directional interactions to be modelled and can accommodate absorbing lists, such as death records, or more general data…
We study the problem of learning the transition matrices of a set of Markov chains from a single stream of observations on each chain. We assume that the Markov chains are ergodic but otherwise unknown. The learner can sample Markov chains…
The conventional perspective on Markov chains considers decision problems concerning the probabilities of temporal properties being satisfied by traces of visited states. However, consider the following query made of a stochastic system…
This paper proposes nonparametric two-sample tests for the direct comparison of the probabilities of a particular transition between states of a continuous time nonhomogeneous Markov process with a finite state space. The proposed tests are…
A rigorous and largely self-contained account of (a) the bread-and-butter concepts and techniques in Markov chain theory and (b) the long-term behaviour of chains. As much as possible, the treatment is probabilistic instead of analytical (I…
We present an approach for testing for the existence of continuous generators of discrete stochastic transition matrices. Typically, the known approaches to ascertain the existence of continuous Markov processes are based in the assumption…
We consider continuous-space, discrete-time Markov chains on $\mathbb{R}^d$, that admit a finite number $N$ of metastable states. Our main motivation for investigating these processes is to analyse random Poincar\'e maps, which describe…
The dynamics of many epidemic compartmental models for infectious diseases that spread in a single host population present a second-order phase transition. This transition occurs as a function of the infectivity parameter, from the absence…
Analyses of serially-sampled data often begin with the assumption that the observations represent discrete samples from a latent continuous-time stochastic process. The continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is one such generative model whose…
We register a random sequence which has the following properties: it has three segments being the homogeneous Markov processes. Each segment has his own one step transition probability law and the length of the segment is unknown and…
Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular…
We investigate multivariate regular variation in the context of time-homogeneous Markov chains on general vector spaces and in random coefficient linear models. In the first part, we show that the regular variation of the stationary…
Let $X_1,X_2,...$ be a sequence of random variables satisfying the distributional recursion $X_1=0$ and $X_n= X_{n-I_n}+1$ for $n=2,3,...$, where $I_n$ is a random variable with values in $\{1,...,n-1\}$ which is independent of…
In the present paper, progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) process is modeled by Continuous time Markov chains (CTMC) with 4 states .The transition intensities among the states are estimated using maximum likelihood…
This paper is a survey of various proofs of the so called {\em fundamental theorem of Markov chains}: every ergodic Markov chain has a unique positive stationary distribution and the chain attains this distribution in the limit independent…
We study the limit behaviour of a generally non-linear ordinary differential equation whose solution is a superadditive generalisation of a stochastic matrix, and provide necessary and sufficient conditions for this solution to be ergodic,…
We develop two models for Bayesian estimation and selection in high-order, discrete-state Markov chains. Both are based on the mixture transition distribution, which constructs a transition probability tensor with additive mixing of…
Continuous-time Markov chains describing interacting processes exhibit a state space that grows exponentially in the number of processes. This state-space explosion renders the computation or storage of the time-marginal distribution, which…