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A novel forecast combination and weighted quantile based tail-risk forecasting framework is proposed, aiming to reduce the impact of modelling uncertainty in tail-risk forecasting. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation…
Prices of European call options in a regime-switching local volatility model can be computed by solving a parabolic system which generalises the classical Black and Scholes equation, giving these prices as functionals of the local…
We investigate the portfolio execution problem under a framework in which volatility and liquidity are both uncertain. In our model, we assume that a multidimensional Markovian stochastic factor drives both of them. Moreover, we model…
We show that, for the purpose of pricing Swaptions, the Swap rate and the corresponding Forward rates can be considered lognormal under a single martingale measure. Swaptions can then be priced as options on a basket of lognormal assets and…
Some problems with the recent stimulating proposal of a ``Gauge Theory of Finance'' by Ilinski and collaborators are outlined. First, the derivation of the log-normal distribution is shown equivalent both in information and mathematical…
In this paper new analytical and numerical approaches to valuating path-dependent options of European type have been developed. The model of stochastic volatility as a basic model has been chosen. For European options we could improve the…
We consider risk-neutral returns and show how their tail asymptotics translate directly to asymptotics of the implied volatility smile, thereby sharpening Roger Lee's celebrated moment formula. The theory of regular variation provides the…
We propose a novel time discretization for the log-normal SABR model which is a popular stochastic volatility model that is widely used in financial practice. Our time discretization is a variant of the Euler-Maruyama scheme. We study its…
In this paper, we introduce a linear stochastic volatility model driven by $\alpha$-stable processes, which admits a unique positive solution. To preserve positivity, we modify the classical forward Euler-Maruyama scheme and analyze its…
We present an adaptive approach for valuing the European call option on assets with stochastic volatility. The essential feature of the method is a reduction of uncertainty in latent volatility due to a Bayesian learning procedure. Starting…
We consider plain vanilla European options written on an underlying asset that follows a continuous time semi-Markov multiplicative process. We derive a formula and a renewal type equation for the martingale option price. In the case in…
For a given time horizon DT, this article explores the relationship between the realized volatility (the volatility that will occur between t and t+DT), the implied volatility (corresponding to at-the-money option with expiry at t+DT), and…
We consider closed-form approximations for European put option prices within the Heston and GARCH diffusion stochastic volatility models with time-dependent parameters. Our methodology involves writing the put option price as an expectation…
Option written on several foreign exchange rates (FXRs) depends on correlation between the rates. To evaluate the option, historical estimates for correlations can be used but usually they are not stable. More significantly, pricing of the…
We investigate the complexity of satisfiability for finite-variable fragments of propositional dynamic logics. We consider three formalisms belonging to three representative complexity classes, broadly understood,---regular PDL, which is…
We consider a general local-stochastic volatility model and an investor with exponential utility. For a European-style contingent claim, whose payoff may depend on either a traded or non-traded asset, we derive an explicit approximation for…
After a brief review of option pricing theory, we introduce various methods proposed for extracting the statistical information implicit in options prices. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of each method, the interpretation of their…
Non-equilibrium phenomena occur not only in physical world, but also in finance. In this work, stochastic relaxational dynamics (together with path integrals) is applied to option pricing theory. A recently proposed model (by Ilinski et…
Modern applications of Bayesian inference involve models that are sufficiently complex that the corresponding posterior distributions are intractable and must be approximated. The most common approximation is based on Markov chain Monte…
We introduce a new formulation of asset trading games in continuous time in the framework of the game-theoretic probability established by Shafer and Vovk (Probability and Finance: It's Only a Game! (2001) Wiley). In our formulation, the…