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Developing and fielding complex systems requires proof that they are reliably correct with respect to their design and operating requirements. Especially for autonomous systems which exhibit unanticipated emergent behavior, fully…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2024-02-28 Matthew Litton , Doron Drusinsky , James Bret Michael

Agents often have individual goals which depend on a group's actions. If agents trust a forecast of collective action and adapt strategically, such prediction can influence outcomes non-trivially, resulting in a form of performative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 António Góis , Mehrnaz Mofakhami , Fernando P. Santos , Gauthier Gidel , Simon Lacoste-Julien

Policy learning is a quickly growing area. As robotics and computers control day-to-day life, their error rate needs to be minimized and controlled. There are many policy learning methods and bandit methods with provable error rates that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-31 Michael Rawson , Radu Balan

To evaluate a classification algorithm, it is common practice to plot the ROC curve using test data. However, the inherent randomness in the test data can undermine our confidence in the conclusions drawn from the ROC curve, necessitating…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-22 Zheshi Zheng , Bo Yang , Peter Song

Any autonomous controller will be unsafe in some situations. The ability to quantitatively identify when these unsafe situations are about to occur is crucial for drawing timely human oversight in, e.g., freight transportation applications.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Alexander Grushin , Walt Woods , Alvaro Velasquez , Simon Khan

The encounter situation between marine vessels determines how they should navigate to obey COLREGs, but time-varying and stochastic uncertainty in estimation of angles of encounter, and of closest point of approach, easily give rise to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-02-09 Peter Nicholas Hansen , Dimitrios Papageorgiou , Roberto Galeazzi , Mogens Blanke

The widespread adoption of machine learning surrogate models has significantly improved the scale and complexity of systems and processes that can be explored accurately and efficiently using atomistic modeling. However, the inherently…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-03-13 Federico Grasselli , Sanggyu Chong , Venkat Kapil , Silvia Bonfanti , Kevin Rossi

For responsible decision making in safety-critical settings, machine learning models must effectively detect and process edge-case data. Although existing works show that predictive uncertainty is useful for these tasks, it is not evident…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-09 Mark Penrod , Harrison Termotto , Varshini Reddy , Jiayu Yao , Finale Doshi-Velez , Weiwei Pan

Algorithmic assurances from advanced autonomous systems assist human users in understanding, trusting, and using such systems appropriately. Designing these systems with the capacity of assessing their own capabilities is one approach to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-10 Brett W Israelsen , Nisar R Ahmed , Eric Frew , Dale Lawrence , Brian Argrow

This work theoretically studies a ubiquitous reinforcement learning policy for controlling the canonical model of continuous-time stochastic linear-quadratic systems. We show that randomized certainty equivalent policy addresses the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-23 Mohamad Kazem Shirani Faradonbeh

Trust is a key factor in ensuring acceptable human-robot interaction, especially in settings where robots may be assisting with critical activities of daily living. When practically deployed, robots are bound to make occasional mistakes,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-08-26 Sasha Wald , Kavya Puthuveetil , Zackory Erickson

We consider the problem of online learning where the sequence of actions played by the learner must adhere to an unknown safety constraint at every round. The goal is to minimize regret with respect to the best safe action in hindsight…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-08 Karthik Sridharan , Seung Won Wilson Yoo

Many current autonomous systems are being designed with a strong reliance on black box predictions from deep neural networks (DNNs). However, DNNs tend to be overconfident in predictions on unseen data and can give unpredictable results for…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-03-04 Björn Lütjens , Michael Everett , Jonathan P. How

Autonomous driving has the potential to significantly enhance productivity and provide numerous societal benefits. Ensuring robustness in these safety-critical systems is essential, particularly when vehicles must navigate adverse weather…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-14 Severin Heidrich , Till Beemelmanns , Alexey Nekrasov , Bastian Leibe , Lutz Eckstein

While modern deep neural networks are performant perception modules, performance (accuracy) alone is insufficient, particularly for safety-critical robotic applications such as self-driving vehicles. Robot autonomy stacks also require these…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-29 Dhaivat Bhatt , Kaustubh Mani , Dishank Bansal , Krishna Murthy , Hanju Lee , Liam Paull

Predicting the motion of dynamic agents is a critical task for guaranteeing the safety of autonomous systems. A particular challenge is that motion prediction algorithms should obey dynamics constraints and quantify prediction uncertainty…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-09-28 Renukanandan Tumu , Lars Lindemann , Truong Nghiem , Rahul Mangharam

Robots deployed in unstructured, real-world environments operate under considerable uncertainty due to imperfect state estimates, model error, and disturbances. Given this real-world context, the goal of this paper is to develop controllers…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-02-27 Ryan K. Cosner , Preston Culbertson , Andrew J. Taylor , Aaron D. Ames

Ensuring the reliability and safety of automated decision-making is crucial. It is well-known that data distribution shifts in machine learning can produce unreliable outcomes. This paper proposes a new approach for measuring the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-14 Daniel Sikar , Artur Garcez , Tillman Weyde , Robin Bloomfield , Kaleem Peeroo

Numerous studies have focused on learning and understanding the dynamics of physical systems from video data, such as spatial intelligence. Artificial intelligence requires quantitative assessments of the uncertainty of the model to ensure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Aoming Liang , Qi Liu , Lei Xu , Fahad Sohrab , Weicheng Cui , Changhui Song , Moncef Gabbouj

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-04 Dan Levi , Liran Gispan , Niv Giladi , Ethan Fetaya