Related papers: Dose-limited interventions in an epidemiological m…
Epidemic models are always simplifications of real world epidemics. Which real world features to include, and which simplifications to make, depend both on the disease of interest and on the purpose of the modelling. In the present paper we…
A general stochastic model for susceptible -> infective -> recovered (SIR) epidemics in non homogeneous populations is considered. The heterogeneity is a very important aspect here since it allows more realistic but also more complex…
We study the threshold dynamics of a stochastic SAIRS-type model with vaccination, where the role of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals is explicitly considered in the epidemic dynamics. In the model, the values of the…
The ubiquity of oscillations in epidemics presents a long standing challenge for the formulation of epidemic models. Whether they are external and seasonally driven, or arise from the intrinsic dynamics is an open problem. It is known that…
This study examines the behavior of solutions in a multi-patch epidemic model that includes a saturation incidence mechanism. When the fatality rate due to the disease is not null, our findings show that the solutions of the model tend to…
The resurgence of measles is largely attributed to the decline in vaccine adoption and the increase in mobility. Although the vaccine for measles is readily available and highly successful, its current adoption is not adequate to prevent…
A probabilistic approach to the epidemic evolution on realistic social-contact networks allows for characteristic differences among subjects, including the individual number and structure of social contacts, and the heterogeneity of the…
Epidemiological models increasingly rely on self-reported behavioral data such as vaccination status, mask usage, and social distancing adherence to forecast disease transmission and assess the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions…
Epidemic risk assessment poses inherent challenges, with traditional approaches often failing to balance health outcomes and economic constraints. This paper presents a data-driven decision support tool that models epidemiological dynamics…
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated by the ongoing response to COVID-19,…
We study an optimal control problem for a non-autonomous SEIRS model with incidence given by a general function of the infective, the susceptible and the total population, and with vaccination and treatment as control variables. We prove…
The design of coherent and efficient policies to address infectious diseases and their consequences requires to model not only epidemics dynamics, but also individual behaviors, as the latter has a strong influence on the former. In our…
In a world being hit by waves of COVID-19, vaccination is a light on the horizon. However, the roll-out of vaccination strategies and their influence on the pandemic are still open problems. In order to compare the effect of various…
We examine here the effects of recurrent vaccination and waning immunity on the establishment of an endemic equilibrium in a population. An individual-based model that incorporates memory effects for transmission rate during infection and…
Empirical studies show that preference for prevention versus treatment remains a subject of debate. We build a paradigm model combining a utility game for the individual-level dilemma of prevention versus treatment, and a compartmental…
This study presents a seasonally forced cholera model that incorporates imperfect vaccination as a control strategy. The model captures the temporal dynamics of susceptible, vaccinated, infected, and recovered individuals, as well as the…
We introduce a multi-layer networked compartmental $SIRS-V_o$ model that captures opinion dynamics, disease spread, risk perception, and self-interest vaccine-uptake behavior in an epidemic process. We characterize the target vaccination…
Most epidemic models are spatially aggregate and the index which is most used for planning and policy numbers, the r number, typically refers to a single system of interest. Even if r numbers are calculated for each of adjacent areas,…
Vaccination campaigns have both direct and indirect effects that act to control an infectious disease as it spreads through a population. Indirect effects arise when vaccinated individuals block disease transmission in any infection chains…
A linearization-based feedback-control strategy for a SEIR epidemic model is discussed. The vaccination objective is the asymptotically tracking of the removed-by-immunity population to the total population while achieving simultaneously…