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Modern artificial intelligence systems make critical decisions yet often fail silently when uncertain -- even well-calibrated models provide no mechanism to identify \textit{which specific predictions} are unreliable. We develop a geometric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-02 Soumojit Das , Nairanjana Dasgupta , Prashanta Dutta

Deep Neural Networks are highly susceptible to shortcut learning, frequently memorizing low-dimensional spurious correlations instead of underlying causal mechanisms. This phenomenon not only degrades out-of-distribution robustness but also…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Nicolas Rodriguez-Alvarez , Fernando Rodriguez-Merino

We describe GBTrans, a real-time search system designed to find fast radio bursts (FRBs) using the 20-m radio telescope at the Green Bank Observatory. The telescope has been part of the Skynet educational program since 2015. We give details…

Accurate prediction of financial market volatility is critical for risk management, derivatives pricing, and investment strategy. In this study, we propose a multitude of regime-switching methods to improve the prediction of S&P 500…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-07 Ava C. Blake , Nivika A. Gandhi , Anurag R. Jakkula

This study explores various feature selection techniques applied to macro-economic forecasting, using Iran's World Bank Development Indicators. Employing a comprehensive evaluation framework that includes Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and…

General Economics · Economics 2024-11-06 Mahdi Goldani

We investigate the effect of the environment on a Berry phase measurement involving a spin-half. We model the spin+environment using a biased spin-boson Hamiltonian with a time-dependent magnetic field. We find that, contrary to naive…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2009-11-07 Robert S. Whitney , Yuval Gefen

Hamilton Jacobi (HJ) Reachability is a formal verification tool widely used in robotic safety analysis. Given a target set as unsafe states, a dynamical system is guaranteed not to enter the target under the worst-case disturbance if it…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-18 Anjian Li , Mo Chen

In the semantic segmentation of street scenes the reliability of the prediction and therefore uncertainty measures are of highest interest. We present a method that generates for each input image a hierarchy of nested crops around the image…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-04-10 Matthias Rottmann , Marius Schubert

Historically, the economic recession often came abruptly and disastrously. For instance, during the 2008 financial crisis, the SP 500 fell 46 percent from October 2007 to March 2009. If we could detect the signals of the crisis earlier, we…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-15 Yue Chen , Xingyi Andrew , Salintip Supasanya

Objective: Conventional urodynamics (UDS) provide critical diagnostic information, but requires invasive dual catheterization and manual labeling of clinically important events. Wireless, catheter-free bladder function tests are becoming…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-22 Hassaan A. Bukhari , Vikram Abbaraju , Jay Patel , Becky Clarkson , Shachi Tyagi , Margot S. Damaser , Steve J. A. Majerus

This paper proposes a hybrid methodology to improve the approximation of SABR (Stochastic Alpha Beta Rho) implied volatility by combining analytical structure with machine learning. The approach augments the neural-network input…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-08 Adil Reghai , Lama Tarsissi , Gérard Biau , Alex Lipton

In hardware accelerators used in data centers and safety-critical applications, soft errors and resultant silent data corruption significantly compromise reliability, particularly when upsets occur in control-flow operations, leading to…

Hardware Architecture · Computer Science 2025-05-09 Tomonari Tanaka , Takumi Uezono , Kohei Suenaga , Masanori Hashimoto

Behavioral benchmarks tell us \textit{what} a model does, but not \textit{how}. We introduce a training-free mechanistic probe using attention-graph spectra. Treating each layer as a token graph, we compute algebraic connectivity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-08 Valentin Noël

Detecting abrupt changes in the mean of a time series, so-called changepoints, is important for many applications. However, many procedures rely on the estimation of nuisance parameters (like long-run variance). Under the alternative (a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-14 Michal Pešta , Martin Wendler

Fluctuations in the stock market rapidly shape the economic world and consumer markets, impacting millions of individuals. Hence, accurately forecasting it is essential for mitigating risks, including those associated with inactivity.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-15 Konstantinos-Leonidas Bisdoulis

Intrinsic variability was searched for in arrival times of six gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) at high energies -- between 30 MeV and 2 GeV -- detected by the Fermi satellite's Large Area Telescope (LAT). The GRBs were selected from the Fermi LAT…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2024-07-31 E. Casey Aldrich , Robert J. Nemiroff

We study $\perp$Grad, a geometry-aware modification to gradient-based optimization that constrains descent directions to address overconfidence, a key limitation of standard optimizers in uncertainty-critical applications. By enforcing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-29 C. Evans Hedges

Geometry of the wave function is a central pillar of modern solid state physics. In this work, we unveil the wave-function geometry of two-dimensional semimetals with band crossing points (BCPs). We show that the Berry phase of BCPs are…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2021-06-16 Yoonseok Hwang , Junseo Jung , Jun-Won Rhim , Bohm-Jung Yang

Persistent entropy (PE) is an information-theoretic summary statistic of persistence barcodes that has been widely used to detect regime changes in complex systems. Despite its empirical success, a general theoretical understanding of when…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-11 Matteo Rucco

Neutral atoms are a promising platform for scalable quantum computing, however prior demonstration of high fidelity gates or low-loss readout methods have employed restricted numbers of qubits. Using randomized benchmarking of…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-07-20 B. Nikolov , E. Diamond-Hitchcock , J. Bass , N. L. R. Spong , J. D. Pritchard
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