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We develop a statistical test to detect lookahead bias in economic forecasts generated by large language models (LLMs). Using state-of-the-art pre-training data detection techniques, we estimate the likelihood that a given prompt appeared…

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have spurred interest in deploying LLM agents to undertake tasks in the world. LLMs are often deployed in agent systems: code that orchestrates LLM calls and provides them with tools. We…

The rapid rise in popularity of Large Language Models (LLMs) with emerging capabilities has spurred public curiosity to evaluate and compare different LLMs, leading many researchers to propose their own LLM benchmarks. Noticing preliminary…

This study presents a novel benchmark for evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs) using challenges derived from the Financial Modeling World Cup (FMWC) Excel competitions. We introduce a methodology for converting 113 existing FMWC…

Real-world forecasting requires models to integrate not only historical data but also relevant contextual information provided in textual form. While large language models (LLMs) show promise for context-aided forecasting, critical…

The digital landscape is rapidly evolving with an ever-increasing volume of online news, emphasizing the need for swift and precise analysis of complex events. We refer to the complex events composed of many news articles over an extended…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated notable capabilities across financial tasks, including financial report summarization, earnings call transcript analysis, and asset classification. However, their real-world effectiveness in…

Predictive analysis is a cornerstone of modern decision-making, with applications in various domains. Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools in enabling nuanced, knowledge-intensive conversations, thus aiding in complex…

This technical report describes the AIA Forecaster, a Large Language Model (LLM)-based system for judgmental forecasting using unstructured data. The AIA Forecaster approach combines three core elements: agentic search over high-quality…

Salient facts of sociopolitical events are distilled into quadruples following a format of subject, relation, object, and timestamp. Machine learning methods, such as graph neural networks (GNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), have…

Modern engineering increasingly relies on vast datasets generated by experiments and simulations, driving a growing demand for efficient, reliable, and broadly applicable modeling strategies. There is also heightened interest in developing…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in empirical software engineering (ESE) to automate or assist annotation tasks such as labeling commits, issues, and qualitative artifacts. Yet the reliability and reproducibility of such…

We introduce a dynamic benchmarking system for conversational agents that evaluates their performance through a single, simulated, and lengthy user$\leftrightarrow$agent interaction. The interaction is a conversation between the user and…

LLM agents are expected to complete end-to-end units of work across software tools, business services, and local workspaces. Yet many agent benchmarks freeze a curated task set at release time and grade mainly the final response, making it…

We present the Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster (BLF), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark. The system is built on three ideas. (1) Linguistic belief state: a…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently achieved remarkable performance in long-context understanding. However, current long-context LLM benchmarks are limited by rigid context length, labor-intensive annotation, and the pressing…

Linear mixed models (LMMs) have emerged as the method of choice for confounded genome-wide association studies. However, the performance of LMMs in non-randomly ascertained case-control studies deteriorates with increasing sample size. We…

Few-shot Continual Event Detection (FCED) poses the dual challenges of learning from limited data and mitigating catastrophic forgetting across sequential tasks. Existing approaches often suffer from severe forgetting due to the full…

Language models (LMs) trained on web-scale datasets are largely successful due to their ability to memorize large amounts of training data, even if only present in a few examples. These capabilities are often desirable in evaluation on…

Large language models (LLMs) have recently been applied to forecasting tasks, with some works claiming these systems match or exceed human performance. In this paper, we argue that, as a community, we should be careful about such…