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Validating interpretable surrogate models for ensemble learners requires measuring agreement between the ensemble's internal representation and its surrogate approximation, rather than mere association. Correlation-based approaches are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Massimo Aria , Agostino Gnasso , Carmela Iorio

Tree-based ensemble methods such as random forests, gradient-boosted trees, and Bayesianadditive regression trees have been successfully used for regression problems in many applicationsand research studies. In this paper, we study ensemble…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-21 Alexandre Seiller , Éric Gaussier , Emilie Devijver , Marianne Clausel , Sami Alkhoury

Regression discontinuity designs are frequently used to estimate the causal effect of election outcomes and policy interventions. In these contexts, treatment effects are typically estimated with covariates included to improve efficiency.…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-06 L. Jason Anastasopoulos

Deep heteroscedastic regression involves jointly optimizing the mean and covariance of the predicted distribution using the negative log-likelihood. However, recent works show that this may result in sub-optimal convergence due to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Megh Shukla , Mathieu Salzmann , Alexandre Alahi

We present a new way to summarize and select mixture models via the hierarchical clustering tree (dendrogram) constructed from an overfitted latent mixing measure. Our proposed method bridges agglomerative hierarchical clustering and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-11 Dat Do , Linh Do , Scott A. McKinley , Jonathan Terhorst , XuanLong Nguyen

This paper explores the statistical properties of forming constrained optimal portfolios within a high-dimensional set of assets. We examine portfolios with tracking error constraints, those with simultaneous tracking error and weight…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-20 Mehmet Caner , Qingliang Fan

This paper proposes an adaptive randomization procedure for two-stage randomized controlled trials. The method uses data from a first-wave experiment in order to determine how to stratify in a second wave of the experiment, where the…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-07-06 Max Tabord-Meehan

Random forest regression (RF) is an extremely popular tool for the analysis of high-dimensional data. Nonetheless, its benefits may be lessened in sparse settings due to weak predictors, and a pre-estimation dimension reduction (targeting)…

This paper studies a tensor-structured linear regression model with a scalar response variable and tensor-structured predictors, such that the regression parameters form a tensor of order $d$ (i.e., a $d$-fold multiway array) in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-26 Talal Ahmed , Haroon Raja , Waheed U. Bajwa

Many causal systems such as biological processes in cells can only be observed indirectly via measurements, such as gene expression. Causal representation learning -- the task of correctly mapping low-level observations to latent causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-31 Elliot Layne , Jason Hartford , Sébastien Lachapelle , Mathieu Blanchette , Dhanya Sridhar

Gaussian mixtures are commonly used for modeling heavy-tailed error distributions in robust linear regression. Combining the likelihood of a multivariate robust linear regression model with a standard improper prior distribution yields an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-05 Haoxiang Li , Qian Qin , Galin L. Jones

Big Data often presents as massive non-probability samples. Not only is the selection mechanism often unknown, but larger data volume amplifies the relative contribution of selection bias to total error. Existing bias adjustment approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Ali Rafei , Carol A. C. Flannagan , Brady T. West , Michael R. Elliott

We present an integrated approach for structure and parameter estimation in latent tree graphical models. Our overall approach follows a "divide-and-conquer" strategy that learns models over small groups of variables and iteratively merges…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-19 Furong Huang , Niranjan U. N. , Ioakeim Perros , Robert Chen , Jimeng Sun , Anima Anandkumar

The ratio of two densities provides a direct characterization of their differences. We consider the two-sample comparison problem by estimating this ratio given i.i.d. observations from two distributions. To this end, we propose additive…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-23 Naoki Awaya , Yuliang Xu , Li Ma

Bayesian regression trees are flexible non-parametric models that are well suited to many modern statistical regression problems. Many such tree models have been proposed, from the simple single- tree model to more complex tree ensembles.…

Computation · Statistics 2013-12-09 M. T. Pratola

In this paper, we investigate adaptive nonlinear regression and introduce tree based piecewise linear regression algorithms that are highly efficient and provide significantly improved performance with guaranteed upper bounds in an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-12-30 N. Denizcan Vanli , Suleyman S. Kozat

Variable selection for high-dimensional, highly correlated data has long been a challenging problem, often yielding unstable and unreliable models. We propose a resample-aggregate framework that exploits diffusion models' ability to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-20 Minjie Wang , Xiaotong Shen , Wei Pan

Linear regression with measurement error in the covariates is a heavily studied topic, however, the statistics/econometrics literature is almost silent to estimating a multi-equation model with measurement error. This paper considers a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-15 Georges Bresson , Anoop Chaturvedi , Mohammad Arshad Rahman , Shalabh

Prediction in high dimensional settings is difficult due to large by number of variables relative to the sample size. We demonstrate how auxiliary "co-data" can be used to improve the performance of a Random Forest in such a setting.…

Applications · Statistics 2017-06-05 Dennis E. te Beest , Steven W. Mes , Ruud H. Brakenhoff , Mark A. van de Wiel

In linear regression with fixed design, we propose two procedures that aggregate a data-driven collection of supports. The collection is a subset of the $2^p$ possible supports and both its cardinality and its elements can depend on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-01 Pierre C. Bellec