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The estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) is an important topic in many scientific fields. CATEs can be estimated with high accuracy if data distributed across multiple parties are centralized. However, it is difficult…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-28 Yuji Kawamata , Ryoki Motai , Yukihiko Okada , Akira Imakura , Tetsuya Sakurai

While average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) provide valuable population- and subgroup-level summaries, they fail to capture uncertainty at the individual level. For high-stakes decision-making,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Juraj Bodik , Yaxuan Huang , Bin Yu

Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

We develop flexible, semiparametric estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) transported to a new population ("target population") that offer potential efficiency gains. Transport may be of value when the ATE may differ across…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-07 Kara E. Rudolph , Nicholas T. Williams , Elizabeth A. Stuart , Ivan Diaz

We present unexpected findings from a large-scale benchmark study evaluating Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation algorithms, i.e., CATE models. By running 16 modern CATE models on 12 datasets and 43,200 sampled variants…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-21 Haining Yu , Yizhou Sun

A new meta-algorithm for estimating the conditional average treatment effects is proposed in the paper. The main idea underlying the algorithm is to consider a new dataset consisting of feature vectors produced by means of concatenation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-10 Lev V. Utkin , Mikhail V. Kots , Viacheslav S. Chukanov

In this paper, we introduce a unified estimator to analyze various treatment effects in causal inference, including but not limited to the average treatment effect (ATE) and the quantile treatment effect (QTE). The proposed estimator is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-31 Kuan-Hsun Wu , Li-Pang Chen

Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimation is a well-studied problem in causal inference. However, it does not necessarily capture the heterogeneity in the data, and several approaches have been proposed to tackle the issue, including…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Raghavendra Addanki , Siddharth Bhandari

We provide theoretical results for the estimation and inference of a class of welfare and value functionals of the nonparametric conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function under optimal treatment assignment, i.e., treatment is…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-30 Xiaohong Chen , Zhenxiao Chen , Wayne Yuan Gao

We consider the problem of partial identification, the estimation of bounds on the treatment effects from observational data. Although studied using discrete treatment variables or in specific causal graphs (e.g., instrumental variables),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Vahid Balazadeh , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Rahul G. Krishnan

We propose a framework for testing the homogeneity of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) across multiple experimental and observational studies. Our approach leverages multiple randomized trials to assess whether treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-25 Ana Armendariz , Martin Huber

State-level policy studies often conduct heterogeneity analyses that quantify how treatment effects vary across state characteristics. These analyses may be used to inform state-specific policy decisions, or to infer how the effect of a…

Traditional causal inference approaches leverage observational study data to estimate the difference in observed and unobserved outcomes for a potential treatment, known as the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE). However, CATE…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-22 Tianhui Zhou , William E Carson , David Carlson

This paper presents a method for constructing uniform confidence bands for the marginal treatment effect (MTE) function. The shape of the MTE function offers insight into how the unobserved propensity to receive treatment is related to the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-23 Toshiki Tsuda , Yanchun Jin , Ryo Okui

Multidimensional heterogeneity and endogeneity are important features of a wide class of econometric models. With control variables to correct for endogeneity, nonparametric identification of treatment effects requires strong support…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-28 Whitney K. Newey , Sami Stouli

We introduce an algorithm for identifying interpretable subgroups with elevated treatment effects, given an estimate of individual or conditional average treatment effects (CATE). Subgroups are characterized by ``rule sets'' --…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-15 Albert Chiu

The heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) lies at the heart of precision medicine. Randomized controlled trials are gold-standard for treatment effect estimation but are typically underpowered for heterogeneous effects. In contrast, large…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-14 Shu Yang , Siyi Liu , Donglin Zeng , Xiaofei Wang

Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation, at the heart of counterfactual reasoning, is a crucial challenge for causal modeling both theoretically and applicatively, in domains such as healthcare, sociology, or advertising.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-27 Armand Lacombe , Michèle Sebag

Treatment effect heterogeneity plays an important role in many areas of causal inference and within recent years, estimation of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) has received much attention in the statistical community. While…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-17 Simon Christoffer Ziersen , Torben Martinussen

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effect in observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, and have been relatively less vetted with survival outcomes. Using flexible machine learning methods in the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-09 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Fan Li