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This paper studies a new and highly efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology to perform Bayesian inference in low-photon imaging problems, with particular attention to situations involving observation noise processes that…

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-09 Elliot Maceda , Emily C. Hector , Amanda Lenzi , Brian J. Reich

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables amortized Bayesian inference for simulators with implicit likelihoods. But when we are primarily interested in the quality of predictive simulations, or when the model cannot exactly reproduce the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-03 Richard Gao , Michael Deistler , Jakob H. Macke

Bayesian posterior distributions naturally represent parameter uncertainty informed by data. However, when the parameter space is complex, as in many nonparametric settings where it is infinite-dimensional or combinatorially large, standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-22 Nicola Bariletto , Nhat Ho , Alessandro Rinaldo

For complex simulation problems, inferring parameters often precludes the use of classical likelihood-based techniques due to intractable likelihoods. Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods offer a likelihood-free approach to directly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Haley Rosso , Talea Mayo

We present an original simulation-based method to estimate likelihood ratios efficiently for general state-space models. Our method relies on a novel use of the conditional Sequential Monte Carlo (cSMC) algorithm introduced in…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-10 Sinan Yıldırım , Christophe Andrieu , Arnaud Doucet

We consider the problem of efficiently performing simulation and inference for stochastic kinetic models. Whilst it is possible to work directly with the resulting Markov jump process, computational cost can be prohibitive for networks of…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-18 Chris Sherlock , Andrew Golightly , Colin Gillespie

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is a powerful inference technique for cases where the exact functional form of the likelihood is not known. A prime example is the likelihood of cross-correlation power spectra of the cosmic microwave…

Black-box simulators are widely used in robotics, but optimizing their parameters remains challenging due to inaccessible likelihoods. Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) tackles this issue using simulation-driven approaches, estimating the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-10-20 Gahee Kim , Takamitsu Matsubara

Given the complexity of modern cosmological parameter inference where we are faced with non-Gaussian data and noise, correlated systematics and multi-probe correlated data sets, the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) method is a…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2017-03-08 Elise Jennings , Maeve Madigan

Gravitational waves from compact binaries measured by the LIGO and Virgo detectors are routinely analyzed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. Because the evaluation of the likelihood function requires evaluating millions of…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-12-23 Arnaud Delaunoy , Antoine Wehenkel , Tanja Hinderer , Samaya Nissanke , Christoph Weniger , Andrew R. Williamson , Gilles Louppe

Sparsity has become a key concept for solving of high-dimensional inverse problems using variational regularization techniques. Recently, using similar sparsity-constraints in the Bayesian framework for inverse problems by encoding them in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-11-18 Felix Lucka

Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-27 Patrick Conrad , Andrew Davis , Youssef Marzouk , Natesh Pillai , Aaron Smith

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

Cosmological inference becomes increasingly difficult when complex data-generating processes cannot be modeled by simple probability distributions. With the ever-increasing size of data sets in cosmology, there is increasing burden placed…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-05 Anja Weyant , Chad Schafer , W. Michael Wood-Vasey

The detection of gravitational waves from extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) in space-borne antennas like Taiji and LISA promises deep insights into strong-field gravity and black hole physics. However, the complex, highly degenerate, and…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-08-27 Bo Liang , Chang Liu , Hanlin Song , Zhenwei Lyu , Minghui Du , Peng Xu , Ziren Luo , Sensen He , Haohao Gu , Tianyu Zhao , Manjia Liang Yuxiang Xu , Li-e Qiang , Mingming Sun , Wei-Liang Qian

There is a lack of simple and scalable algorithms for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods quantify uncertainty through posterior and predictive distributions, but it is difficult to rapidly estimate summaries of these…

Computation · Statistics 2016-12-28 Cheng Li , Sanvesh Srivastava , David B. Dunson

Simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) methods are widely used for parameter estimation in complex models where evaluating the likelihood is challenging but generating simulations is relatively straightforward. However, these methods…

In this work, we present a scalable approach for inferring the dark energy equation-of-state parameter ($w$) from a population of strong gravitational lens images using Simulation-Based Inference (SBI). Strong gravitational lensing offers…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-07-25 Sreevani Jarugula , Brian Nord , Abhijith Gandrakota , Aleksandra Ćiprijanović

Spatial whole-brain Bayesian modeling of task-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is a great computational challenge. Most of the currently proposed methods therefore do inference in subregions of the brain separately or do…

Computation · Statistics 2017-01-03 Per Sidén , Anders Eklund , David Bolin , Mattias Villani
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