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Heavy tailed phenomena are naturally analyzed by extreme value statistics. A crucial step in such an analysis is the estimation of the extreme value index, which describes the tail heaviness of the underlying probability distribution. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-18 Hanan Ahmed , John H. J. Einmahl

In this paper we develop a novel inferential approach based on geometric records for estimating the tail index of heavy-tailed distributions. We construct a maximum likelihood estimator for the Pareto model and establish its strong…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-30 Martín Alcalde , Raúl Gouet , Miguel Lafuente , F. Javier López , Gerardo Sanz

Extreme value analysis in the presence of censoring is receiving much attention as it has applications in many disciplines, including survival and reliability studies. Estimation of extreme value index (EVI) is of primary importance as it…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-03 Richard Minkah , Tertius de Wet , Kwabena Doku-Amponsah

In this work, we propose a class of importance sampling (IS) estimators for estimating the right tail probability of a sum of continuous random variables based on a change of variables to $L^1$ polar coordinates in which the radial and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-19 Thomas Taimre , Patrick J. Laub

In this paper, we investigate the extreme-value methodology, to propose an improved estimator of the conditional tail expectation ($CTE$) for a loss distribution with a finite mean but infinite variance. The present work introduces a new…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-11 Mohamed Laidi , Abdelaziz Rassoul , Hamid Ould Rouis

We suggest approximating the distribution of the sum of independent and identically distributed random variables with a Pareto-like tail by combining extreme value approximations for the largest summands with a normal approximation for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-05 Ulrich K. Mueller

In this paper, we consider robust estimation of claim severity models in insurance, when data are affected by truncation (due to deductibles), censoring (due to policy limits), and scaling (due to coinsurance). In particular, robust…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-22 Chudamani Poudyal , Vytaras Brazauskas

The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-21 Abdelaati Daouia , Simone A. Padoan , Gilles Stupfler

In this article, the weighted empirical likelihood is applied to a general setting of two-sample semiparametric models, which includes biased sampling models and case-control logistic regression models as special cases. For various types of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Jian-Jian Ren

Adaptive experiment designs can dramatically improve statistical efficiency in randomized trials, but they also complicate statistical inference. For example, it is now well known that the sample mean is biased in adaptive trials.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-16 Vitor Hadad , David A. Hirshberg , Ruohan Zhan , Stefan Wager , Susan Athey

Weighting with the inverse probability of censoring is an approach to deal with censoring in regression analyses where the outcome may be missing due to right-censoring. In this paper, three separate approaches involving this idea in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-30 Morten Overgaard

Win statistics, including the win ratio, net benefit, and win odds, summarize treatment effects on hierarchical composite endpoints by sequentially comparing patient pairs on component outcomes ordered by clinical importance, proceeding to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Xi Fang , Fan Li

In survival analysis, the estimation of the proportion of subjects who will never experience the event of interest, termed the cure rate, has received considerable attention recently. Its estimation can be a particularly difficult task when…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-02 Jan Beirlant , Martin Bladt , Ingrid Van Keilegom

The estimation of the extremal dependence structure is spoiled by the impact of the bias, which increases with the number of observations used for the estimation. Already known in the univariate setting, the bias correction procedure is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-04-03 Anne-Laure Fougères , Laurens de Haan , Cécile Mercadier

In this paper, we establish weak consistency and asymptotic normality of an M-estimator of the regression function for left truncated and right censored (LTRC) model, where it is assumed that the observations form a stationary alpha-mixing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-09 Hassiba Benseradj , Zohra Guessoum

Estimating individualized treatment rules is a central task for personalized medicine. [zhao2012estimating] and [zhang2012robust] proposed outcome weighted learning to estimate individualized treatment rules directly through maximizing the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-02 Yifan Cui , Ruoqing Zhu , Michael Kosorok

The dominant approaches to text representation in natural language rely on learning embeddings on massive corpora which have convenient properties such as compositionality and distance preservation. In this paper, we develop a novel method…

The masses of data now available have opened up the prospect of discovering weak signals using machine-learning algorithms, with a view to predictive or interpretation tasks. As this survey of recent results attempts to show, bringing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Stephan Clémençon , Anne Sabourin

We present new estimators of the mean of a real valued random variable, based on PAC-Bayesian iterative truncation. We analyze the non-asymptotic minimax properties of the deviations of estimators for distributions having either a bounded…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-30 Olivier Catoni

The results of a series of theoretical studies are reported, examining the convergence rate for different approximate representations of $\alpha$-stable distributions. Although they play a key role in modelling random processes with jumps…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-03 Marina Riabiz , Tohid Ardeshiri , Ioannis Kontoyiannis , Simon Godsill