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Gaussian process regression is a popular method for non-parametric probabilistic modeling of functions. The Gaussian process prior is characterized by so-called hyperparameters, which often have a large influence on the posterior model and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-18 Andreas Svensson , Johan Dahlin , Thomas B. Schön

In Bayesian inverse problems, one aims at characterizing the posterior distribution of a set of unknowns, given indirect measurements. For non-linear/non-Gaussian problems, analytic solutions are seldom available: Sequential Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-26 Alessandro Viani , Adam M Johansen , Alberto Sorrentino

Majorization-minimization (MM) is a standard iterative optimization technique which consists in minimizing a sequence of convex surrogate functionals. MM approaches have been particularly successful to tackle inverse problems and…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-01 Yousra Bekhti , Felix Lucka , Joseph Salmon , Alexandre Gramfort

Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Yufei Cui , Wuguannan Yao , Qiao Li , Antoni B. Chan , Chun Jason Xue

We generalize the approach of Liu and Lawrence (1999) for multiple changepoint problems where the number of changepoints is unknown. The approach is based on dynamic programming recursion for efficient calculation of the marginal…

Computation · Statistics 2009-09-29 Heng Lian

We consider the problem of optimizing a real-valued continuous function $f$ using a Bayesian approach, where the evaluations of $f$ are chosen sequentially by combining prior information about $f$, which is described by a random process…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2011-11-22 Romain Benassi , Julien Bect , Emmanuel Vazquez

In many hierarchical inverse problems, not only do we want to estimate high- or infinite-dimensional model parameters in the parameter-to-observable maps, but we also have to estimate hyperparameters that represent critical assumptions in…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-18 Johnathan Bardsley , Tiangang Cui

The Bayesian formulation of inverse problems is attractive for three primary reasons: it provides a clear modelling framework; means for uncertainty quantification; and it allows for principled learning of hyperparameters. The posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-14 Matthew M. Dunlop , Tapio Helin , Andrew M. Stuart

We study Bayesian methods for large-scale linear inverse problems, focusing on the challenging task of hyperparameter estimation. Typical hierarchical Bayesian formulations that follow a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach are possible for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-01-05 Khalil A Hall-Hooper , Arvind K Saibaba , Julianne Chung , Scot M Miller

Bayesian models often involve a small set of hyperparameters determined by maximizing the marginal likelihood. Bayesian optimization is a popular iterative method where a Gaussian process posterior of the underlying function is sequentially…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-18 Oskar Gustafsson , Mattias Villani , Pär Stockhammar

Minimization of a stochastic cost function is commonly used for approximate sampling in high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems with Gaussian prior distributions and multimodal posterior distributions. The density of the samples…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-06-03 Yuming Ba , Jana de Wiljes , Dean S. Oliver , Sebastian Reich

In Bayesian inverse problems, it is common to consider several hyperparameters that define the prior and the noise model that must be estimated from the data. In particular, we are interested in linear inverse problems with additive…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-12-05 Julianne Chung , Scot M. Miller , Malena Sabate Landman , Arvind K. Saibaba

The identification of parameters in mathematical models using noisy observations is a common task in uncertainty quantification. We employ the framework of Bayesian inversion: we combine monitoring and observational data with prior…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-11 Jonas Latz , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

Modern macroeconometrics often relies on time series models for which it is time-consuming to evaluate the likelihood function. We demonstrate how Bayesian computations for such models can be drastically accelerated by reweighting and…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-10 Marko Mlikota , Frank Schorfheide

Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over-/under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-27 Daniel R. Kowal , Bohan Wu

Monte Carlo (MC) integration is the de facto method for approximating the predictive distribution of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). But, even with many MC samples, Gaussian-based BNNs could still yield bad predictive performance due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Agustinus Kristiadi , Runa Eschenhagen , Philipp Hennig

In a Bayesian learning setting, the posterior distribution of a predictive model arises from a trade-off between its prior distribution and the conditional likelihood of observed data. Such distribution functions usually rely on additional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-11-01 Andrea Schirru , Simone Pampuri , Giuseppe De Nicolao , Sean McLoone

We consider posterior sampling in the very common Bayesian hierarchical model in which observed data depends on high-dimensional latent variables that, in turn, depend on relatively few hyperparameters. When the full conditional over the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-10-24 Richard A. Norton , J. Andres Christen , Colin Fox

Bayesian modelling and computational inference by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a principled framework for large-scale uncertainty quantification, though is limited in practice by computational cost when implemented in the simplest…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-21 Colin Fox , Tiangang Cui , Markus Neumayer

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have become powerful tools for Bayesian inference. However, they do not scale well to large-data problems. Divide-and-conquer strategies, which split the data into batches and, for each batch, run…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-18 Christopher Nemeth , Chris Sherlock
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